Alteration of Parliamentary Vote and Potential Impact on Relations with Autonomous Regions in Georgia
Tension between Abkhazia and its Russian sponsors has escalated in recent months, with rising local discontent towards Moscow despite the latter's welcoming of Georgia's anti-Western policy shift. This shift was on display in Abkhazia’s de facto legislature, which sought to enact a law permitting foreigners, particularly Russians, to purchase property—a move many Abkhaz perceived as threatening their autonomy and national identity.
Mass protests succeeded in halting the adoption of the so-called "apartment law" in late July. However, Russia responded by cutting its subsidies to the territory, starting September 1. This move significantly impacted local authorities' ability to pay essential workers' salaries, such as medical personnel, teachers, and police.
In a news conference, Abkhazia’s de facto foreign minister, Sergei Shamba, announced the subsidy cuts and expressed his concern over the growing discontent among local residents towards Russia. He urged Abkhaz citizens to work together to improve relations with their "strategic ally."
While the reasons behind Russia's decision to cease subsidies are not entirely clear, experts argue that strained Kremlin finances due to the Russia-Ukraine war may have played a role.
Meanwhile, a new development in Georgia's domestic politics could potentially lead to improved relations between the country and Abkhazia. During a campaign speech on September 14, Bidzina Ivanishvili, the founder and honorary chairman of the incumbent Georgian Dream party, suggested that Georgia should apologize for attacking South Ossetia, which precipitated the war with Russia. The Abkhaz Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed openness to "reconciliation" in response.
However, experts remain skeptical whether Ivanishvili's conciliatory words can translate into actions that improve relations. Any movement in that direction likely requires Georgian Dream to win the October 26 parliamentary elections and secure a super-majority of MPs. Polling data commissioned by an opposition-leaning news outlet suggests that such an outcome is unlikely, given a free and fair vote.
Even if Georgian Dream manages a decisive electoral victory, other complications could arise. The implementation of the so-called "foreign agents" law, imposing stringent reporting requirements on non-governmental organizations, could affect the implementation of NGO projects in the breakaway region, leading to increased reliance on Moscow.
According to David Jishkariani, a historian who specializes in the breakaway region, the "foreign agents" law is potentially dangerous for Abkhazia, likely causing the region to become more isolated. The de facto Abkhaz government has attempted to tighten its control over the local NGO sector, including by proposing a "foreign agents" law similar to Georgia’s.
Georgian Dream officials have hinted at revising the country's official policies on the breakaway territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia if they secure a parliamentary super-majority. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov appears cautious, emphasizing the need for regional stability and offering help to normalize Georgia's ties with its breakaway regions. Tbilisi Mayor and Georgian Dream Secretary General Kakha Kaladze indicated that the party took Lavrov's offer positively.
Vano Abramashvili, director of the Peace Program at Caucasian House, a Tbilisi-based NGO, suggests that Georgian Dream's statements about the breakaway regions are largely political maneuvers aimed at energizing voters. "There are no clues at all to think rationally that Russia is ready to give us back those territories, for example, and end the occupation," Abramashvili said, adding that Abkhazians may be dissatisfied with Russia but have no other ally to turn to.
- The escalating tension between Abkhazia and its Russian sponsors has extended to discussions about real estate, as the de facto legislature sought to enact a law permitting foreigners to purchase property, which many Abkhaz perceived as threatening their autonomy and national identity.
- In a bid to address the rising discontent towards Moscow, Abkhazia’s de facto foreign minister, Sergei Shamba, urged Abkhaz citizens to work together to improve relationships with their "strategic ally."
- Russia's decision to cease subsidies to Abkhazia, starting September 1, has had a significant impact on local authorities' ability to pay essential workers' salaries, including medical personnel, teachers, and police, and has been linked to the Russia-Ukraine war and strained Kremlin finances.
- Meanwhile, Georgia's domestic politics have taken a turn with Bidzina Ivanishvili, the founder and honorary chairman of the incumbent Georgian Dream party, suggesting a potential apology for attacking South Ossetia, which could potentially lead to improved relations between Georgia and Abkhazia.
- In the general news, experts remain skeptical about the possibility of Ivanishvili's conciliatory words translating into actions that improve relations, as it requires Georgian Dream to win the October 26 parliamentary elections and secure a super-majority of MPs.
- The implementation of the "foreign agents" law in Georgia could potentially lead to increased reliance on Moscow and isolation for the breakaway region of Abkhazia, according to David Jishkariani, a historian who specializes in the breakaway region.
