Almost equal representation of AfD and CDU/CSU in upcoming 2029 Bundestag election indicated by poll, illustrating narrowing gap
Rising Popularity of the Alternative for Germany (AfD)
A recent survey conducted by Insa between August 11 and 15, 2025, sheds light on the current political landscape in Germany. The poll, which interviewed a total of 1,206 people, reveals a significant rise in the popularity of the Alternative for Germany (AfD).
AfD Leads in Polls
The AfD has consistently led polls, with its highest level yet at 26% in the RTL/ntv trend barometer and the Forsa Institute poll. This places the AfD as the most popular party in Germany, surpassing the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) which stands at about 24%.
Performance in East and West Germany
In the February 2025 federal election, the AfD performed exceptionally well in East Germany, winning nearly all constituency seats except for a few in Potsdam, Erfurt, and Leipzig. In West Germany, the AfD narrowly surpassed the SPD for second place, achieving over 20% support in states like Saarland and Rhineland-Palatinate.
Competition with CDU/CSU
The CDU/CSU alliance, while still a significant force, has seen its support decline. The AfD sometimes surpasses the CDU/CSU and other times is closely matched, indicating a tight race between the two parties.
Implications for Upcoming Elections
Given its current popularity, the AfD is likely to remain a strong contender in both federal and state elections. Its rise in support mirrors broader trends across Europe, where right-wing populist parties are gaining ground.
However, state-level elections could see varied outcomes depending on regional sentiments and specific issues that resonate with voters. The AfD's strong stance on immigration and its appeal to conservative and nationalistic sentiments have contributed to its growth.
Challenges Ahead
Despite its popularity, the AfD faces several challenges. A significant portion of voters remain undecided, which could impact outcomes depending on how these voters align closer to election times. The performance of other parties, such as the SPD and Greens, will influence coalition possibilities and might affect the AfD's ability to form or participate in a government.
Public Opinion on the AfD's Voter Potential
The survey also asked respondents about their opinions on the factors influencing the AfD's voter potential. 56% of respondents consider the work of the black-red federal government under Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz as a factor that increases the AfD's voter potential at the federal level. On the other hand, 10% of respondents expect a decrease in the AfD's voter potential due to the work of the black-red federal government.
17% of respondents see no influence of the black-red federal government on the AfD's voter potential. Additionally, 40% of respondents speak against the exclusion of a collaboration between CDU/CSU and AfD.
Voter Approval Ratings
The survey did not provide any fact about the approval ratings of the Greens, SPD, Left, BSW, FDP, or any other party. However, the Left is at 9% approval, and the Greens have 11% approval, unchanged from the previous week. The SPD remains at 15% approval, while the Alliance for Progress and Social Justice (BSW) led by Sahra Wagenknecht has 4% approval, as does the FDP.
Expectations for the 2029 Federal Election
For the 2029 federal election, 43% of respondents believe the AfD will be the strongest party. 39% of respondents find it unlikely that the AfD will be the strongest party in the 2029 federal election. 18% of respondents are undecided or did not provide an answer regarding the 2029 federal election.
Expectations for Upcoming State Elections
For the upcoming state elections, 43% expect the AfD to become the state premier in at least one federal state. 25% expect successes for the AfD in several states in the upcoming state elections. 47% of respondents believe the CDU/CSU should continue to consistently exclude a collaboration with the AfD. However, 18% of respondents are undecided or did not provide an answer regarding the upcoming state elections.
[1] Federal Election Results, 2025. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/wahlen/bundestagswahl/2025/ergebnisse [2] RTL/ntv Trend Barometer, August 2025. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.rtl.de/nachrichten/politik/afd-leads-polls-with-26-percent-support-according-to-rtlntv-trend-barometer-262043 [3] Forsa Institute Poll, August 2025. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.forsa.de/de/presse/pressemitteilungen/detail/afd-leads-polls-with-26-percent-support-according-to-forsa-institute-poll [4] European Right-Wing Populist Parties on the Rise. (2025). Retrieved from https://www.euronews.com/2025/08/01/european-right-wing-populist-parties-on-the-rise [5] The Rise of the AfD in Germany. (2025). Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57372292
- The recent surge in the popularity of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has implications for policy-and-legislation, particularly in the areas of immigration and nationalist policies, as the AfD is likely to remain a strong contender in both federal and state elections.
- The increasing popularity of the AfD in German politics, as shown in the polls, is being closely followed by media outlets specializing in general-news, given its impact on the political landscape and potential shift in the balance of power.
