Allies, once united under the "Coalition of the Willing," are showing signs of dissent.
Struggling to stem the tide: Europe's reluctance to send troops to Ukraine
Europe's military prowess is facing a critical test as it struggles to rally enough troops to form a deterrence force in Ukraine, a situation now openly acknowledged by defense officials.
Continent-wide, the armed forces are understrength and underfunded, leaving the goal of assembling a 64,000-strong force, as proposed by British chief of the defense staff Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, ever-elusive.
According to confidants privy to discussions in Brussels, European defense ministers have expressed that a collective pot of 25,000 troops would be a stretch, even for a joint effort.
Allied doubts about the viability of such a deployment have been voiced directly to UK's defense secretary John Healey. The sheer scope of the commitment makes for a daunting prospect—a force that large would necessitate the deployment of 256,000 troops on the ground over two years, accounting for rotations.
Lithuania's defense minister, Dovile Sakaliene, bluntly warned her colleagues: "Russia has 800,000 troops. If we can't even raise 64,000, that's not weakness—it's weak."
Concerns about diluting border defenses have been raised by Estonia and Finland, while Poland, Spain, and Italy have flat-out refused to commit soldiers to the endeavor. Germany and Finland have generally shown reluctance towards sending ground forces, although Berlin's stance is not yet entirely firm.
As the war in Ukraine rages on, Europe's response has been tilted towards financial and military aid, rather than troop contributions. Recent pledges totaling €138 billion have focused on providing critical resources like artillery, drones, and air defense, addressing Ukraine's urgent battlefield needs[1].
It appears that European nations are cautious about direct military involvement to avoid escalating the conflict, as they lack legal grounds for troop deployment under NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause, which has not been triggered in Ukraine[^1^].
Europe's focus on financial/material support over personnel deployment is apparent, with its emphasis on delivering record military aid packages[2]. Some European nations may also be hesitant due to concerns over domestic public opinion, strategic reliance on the U.S., and institutional limitations[3][5].
In the face of Russia's numerically superior military, Europe's reluctance to commit significant numbers of troops underscores the challenges ahead in its efforts to shore up Ukrainian defenses.
[^1^]: No direct citation available in provided materials; inferred from general geopolitical knowledge.
@ukraine_watch
Scrutinizing the Numbers:- Politically and legally, European nations are cautious about direct military involvement to avoid escalating the war into a broader NATO-Russia conflict, as they lack legal grounds for troop deployment under NATO's Article 5 mutual defense clause.- Armed with record military aid packages, Europe has instead prioritized the provision of air defense, artillery, and ammunition due to Ukraine's urgent battlefield needs.- Deploying troops risks losing public support, particularly in countries with strong anti-war sentiments or upcoming elections.- European militaries still grapple with gaps in readiness and scalability, as nations like Poland work to increase defense spending.- Historically dependent on U.S. leadership for collective defense, some European countries may lack the operational frameworks or political will to lead such a mission independently.
- Given the large numbers needed for a deterrence force in Ukraine, European allies require at least 256,000 troops over two years, a commitment that many find daunting.
- Despite Lithuania's defense minister, Dovile Sakaliene, warning that Russia has 800,000 troops, European defense ministers see a collective force of 25,000 as a stretch, even for a joint effort.
- Allied doubts about a deployment to Ukraine have been voiced, and nations like Estonia, Finland, Poland, Spain, and Italy have flat-out refused to commit soldiers.
- Due to concerns about escalating the conflict, Europe's focus has been on financial and military aid, with some nations hesitant due to potential domestic opposition, strategic reliance on the U.S., and institutional limitations.
