Alliance Loses: Union and Greens Fall Short
In a poll commissioned by the RTL media group and conducted by Forsa between November 30 and December 4, 2020, the current political landscape in Germany shows some interesting developments.
The Union (CDU/CSU) remains the strongest political force, with 36 percent of respondents expressing their support. This is a 16-point lead over the Greens, who currently stand at 20 percent. The SPD follows closely behind with 15 percent, while the Left, AfD, FDP, and other parties make up the remaining 21 percent.
Markus Söder, the leader of the CDU/CSU, has gained one percentage point and would currently receive 35 percent of the vote if German citizens could directly elect their federal chancellor. This is a significant increase compared to the previous poll results. On the other hand, Greens leader Robert Habeck has lost two percentage points and would currently receive 19 percent in the polls.
Despite Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz being well-regarded as a person and finance minister, only a few want him as chancellor. If German citizens could directly elect their federal chancellor, only 14 percent would vote for Scholz.
The poll results indicate a shift in popularity, with Söder gaining support and the Greens losing some. This trend is also reflected in the current RTL/ntv Trendbarometer, which shows the Union (CDU/CSU) with a 16-point lead over the Greens.
It's important to note that these poll results do not reflect the actual outcome of the federal election, as it has not yet taken place. The official election results will be determined in February 2025.
The poll results also show some changes compared to the February 2025 federal election results. For instance, the SPD remains the clear third-strongest party, five percentage points below its last federal election result. The AfD, on the other hand, has seen a historic rise in popularity, with approximately 25-26 percent of respondents expressing their support.
The number of non-voters and undecided is 21 percent, slightly below the 23.8 percent of non-voters in the 2017 federal election. The sample size for the poll was 2,507 respondents, and the data was collected online.
It's also worth mentioning that the poll results correlate with the current approval ratings of Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU/CSU), who faces low approval ratings and significant dissatisfaction. The AfD's rise in popularity reflects growing populist and far-right support, though other parties remain reluctant to cooperate with them.
[1] INSA Poll, August 12-15, 2025 [2] Verian Poll, August 12-15, 2025 [3] RTL/ntv Trendbarometer, November 30 - December 4, 2020 [4] Official 2025 Federal Election Results, February [5] Various news sources reporting on the poll results and political landscape in Germany.
- The current RTL/ntv Trendbarometer, as well as the INSA Poll and Verian Poll from August 2025, indicates a shift in the German political landscape towards a stronger support for the Union (CDU/CSU), with the Greens experiencing a dip in popularity, possibly due to changes in policy-and-legislation and general-news developments.
- Despite Chancellor Friedrich Merz's (CDU/CSU) low approval ratings and growing populist and far-right support, other political parties in Germany remain reluctant to cooperate with them, reflecting ongoing complexities in the nation's politics.
