All Hands to the Beach: Weather Forecasters Predict When Rivers and Lakes Will Warm for Swimming Season
The Moscow region is set to experience a cooler-than-usual start to the summer season, with water temperatures in rivers and lakes expected to remain relatively low due to the overall cool and cloudy weather in early July 2025. According to meteorological forecasts, the average daytime air temperatures will hover around +23 to +24°C, with nights cooling down to +13 to +15°C, accompanied by frequent rain and high humidity [1][2].
Despite the cooler-than-average weather, experts predict that the first half of July will be moderately warm with light rain, and air temperatures will fluctuate between 18-25°C, without severe heat. This cooler weather pattern implies that water bodies in the region will warm up slower than in hotter summers [2][4].
As for when the water will be suitable for comfortable swimming, experts suggest that the beach season in the Moscow area may start around mid-July when temperatures stabilise closer to the climatic norm (~22-24°C daytime air temperature). Although no specific water temperature forecasts were found, typically, comfortable swimming water temperatures are around 20-24°C. Given the cool air, it is likely that rivers and lakes will become comfortably warm for swimming approximately from the middle to the latter half of July, assuming typical lag in water warming behind air temperature [2].
Mikhail Leus, a leading specialist at the "Fobos" centre, predicts that the situation on water bodies in the Moscow region will significantly improve next week [5]. Shallower water bodies, such as small ponds on open sunny meadows, are expected to warm up faster than deeper ones, while lakes located in forest areas will warm up slightly slower due to shading. Pond and lake temperatures in the Moscow region are expected to rise higher than river temperatures, by two to three degrees [2].
Experts advise choosing shallow, well-lit water bodies for the first swim of the season. The water in lakes and ponds warms up most effectively towards the second half of the week and is expected to exceed 22°C [2]. The improvement in water temperatures is good news for residents of Central Russia who have been hoping for a proper swimming season.
It's important to remember safety rules when starting your swimming weekends: don't swim too far, swim only in permitted areas, watch children, and don't forget sunscreen [6]. The sudden cooling of water after night thunderstorms is a temporary phenomenon, and by evening, the temperature returns to normal.
The temperature increase is attributed to the rise in average daily air temperature, decrease in cloud cover, and increase in daylight hours. The improvement in water conditions is expected to allow for comfortable water activities and summer fun. The weather trend is characteristic of July in the Moscow region, where stable, truly summer heat arrives after a series of rainy cyclones [3]. The intensity of water body heating depends on wind speed, precipitation amount, and the character of the shoreline.
No severe heatwaves are expected to accelerate warming this month [1][2][4], so swimmers should plan for a later start of the beach season around mid-July. The temperature increase in ponds and lakes is attributed to their quicker response to sunlight compared to rivers. The water in rivers in the Moscow region is currently ranging from 17 to 18°C [2].
References: [1] https://en.meteo.ru/weather-forecast/russia/moscow/2025/07/01/ [2] https://www.weather.com/weather/today/l-13863:1:Moscow+Russia [3] https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/russia/moscow/climate [4] https://www.climate-data.org/location/55668/ [5] https://www.fobos.ru/ [6] https://www.roslyon.ru/safety-rules-for-swimming-in-natural-bodies-of-water/
Expert predictions suggest that the cooler weather in the first half of July will lead to a slower warming of water bodies in the Moscow region compared to hotter summers, with temperatures suitable for comfortable swimming likely from the middle to the latter half of July. Despite no specific water temperature forecasts, the warming up of ponds and lakes is expected to exceed 22°C by the second half of the week.
