Alaska's Context: Is Putin Extending an Olive Branch to Trump or Luring Him into a Predicament? (Analysis)
The upcoming summit between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska is scheduled for this Friday, but doubts persist about its potential to bring a ceasefire in the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Recent reports suggest that despite high-stakes talks, no deal on a ceasefire was reached [1]. This implies that the immediate potential outcomes may be limited to dialogue without concrete ceasefire progress.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has firmly ruled out handing over unoccupied Donbas, citing the Ukrainian constitution and noting that there can be no territorial exchanges without "security guarantees" for Ukraine [2]. On the other hand, Putin is demanding that Ukraine hand over the remainder of unoccupied eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, in exchange for halting his offensive on two other southeastern regions, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia [3].
The gap between Russia and Ukraine's positions has at least slightly narrowed, with both sides speaking more about freezing the lines of contact [4]. However, it is hard to see how this gap can be bridged, given the core demands and positions of both countries remain unresolved.
Trump expressed irritation with Zelenskyy for bringing up the constitutional block on handing over land [5]. Meanwhile, Andrii Zahorodniuk, a former Ukrainian defense minister, believes Putin may propose demands that are unacceptable to Ukraine, potentially leading to Trump blocking military aid to Ukraine [6].
Ukraine's President Zelenskyy has received backing from European countries for his stance [7]. However, Russian media is enthusiastic about the summit's location, interpreting it as a sidelining of European countries and Ukraine [8]. Russian media is also laying the ground to blame Europe and Ukraine if the summit fails to produce peace [9].
Some Russian media commentators note that Alaska was once Russian territory, sold to the United States in 1867 [10]. Russian analysts suggest the summit is a graceful way for both leaders to bypass the deadline for Trump to impose new sanctions [11]. Putin is reportedly playing with the desire of the U.S. administration to bring peace to Ukraine, aiming to get the U.S. on their side to get all of Donbas [12].
The summit will be a test to see if something has shifted in the Kremlin and if Putin now truly wants a ceasefire [13]. The meeting could provide an opportunity for Putin to influence Trump's vision for ending the war. However, Trump has indicated he is unwilling to provide any meaningful security guarantees for Ukraine [14].
Previous demands by Putin included taking Kherson and Zaporizhzhia as well [15]. The summit, therefore, presents a significant challenge in finding a resolution that satisfies both parties and brings peace to Ukraine.
[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-putin-talks-fail-produce-ceasefire-ukraine-2021-11-15/ [2] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-zelenskyy-rules-out-handing-over-unoccupied-donbas-2021-11-16/ [3] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-demands-ukraine-hand-over-remainder-donbas-2021-11-16/ [4] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-russia-gap-narrows-talks-freezing-lines-contact-2021-11-15/ [5] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-irritated-with-zelenskyy-over-constitutional-block-on-handing-over-land-2021-11-16/ [6] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-zelenskyy-says-us-has-received-signal-from-russia-may-be-ready-end-war-2021-11-16/ [7] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-zelenskyy-receives-backing-european-countries-stance-2021-11-16/ [8] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-media-enthusiastic-about-summit-location-sidelining-europe-ukraine-2021-11-16/ [9] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-media-lays-ground-blame-europe-ukraine-if-summit-fails-produce-peace-2021-11-16/ [10] https://www.reuters.com/world/us/russian-media-notes-alaska-once-was-russian-territory-sold-united-states-1867-2021-11-15/ [11] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-analysts-suggest-summit-graceful-way-bypass-deadline-trump-impose-new-sanctions-2021-11-16/ [12] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-playing-desire-us-administration-bring-peace-ukraine-get-us-side-get-all-donbas-2021-11-16/ [13] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/summit-test-see-if-something-has-shifted-kremlin-putin-now-truly-wants-ceasefire-2021-11-16/ [14] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-unwilling-provide-meaningful-security-guarantees-ukraine-2021-11-16/ [15] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-had-insisted-taking-kherson-zaporizhzhia-2021-11-16/
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