Al-Qaeda's resurfacing and its impact on American foreign policy
In the ever-evolving global landscape, the United States is adjusting its counterterrorism approach to address the resurgence of al-Qaeda. The threat from Islamist extremism remains active, particularly in Africa's Sahel region, which ranks as the second-most active theater.
The strategic focus of the U.S. is on containing threats and deepening ties with key allies, such as India, for whom a strategic partnership is deemed essential, superseding any engagement with Pakistan. This shift in focus comes as the U.S. aims to protect its homeland, build firebreaks, and tamp down threats before they escalate or risk regional stability in areas significant to American interests.
The Middle East, Central Asia, and the Sahel continue to host an extensive presence of al-Qaeda, mirroring their activity levels before the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. Al-Qaeda has safe houses for transit at the Iran-Pakistan borders and active training camps around Afghanistan. Iran, despite initially supporting militant Islamist groups with links to al-Qaeda, appears to allow the group to transit the country with minimal oversight.
Pakistan, a nation where its foreign and security policy is heavily influenced by its military and Inter-Services Intelligence, has competing factions within its security and military services. Some of these factions are linked to extremist groups that pose a threat to India. China, a significant player in Pakistan, props up its economy and provides military support, making it unlikely for Islamabad to change its behaviour.
The U.S. goal is not to eliminate global extremism but to manage and contain the threat. To achieve this, the U.S. is leveraging precision counterterrorism and strategic regional alliances. The most important partners in this endeavour are Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Arab states in the Middle East, despite internal conflicts among them.
In a surprising development, the new government in Damascus, initially supported by militant Islamist groups with links to al-Qaeda, has been asked to normalize relations with Israel and potentially join the Abraham Accords. This potential shift could significantly impact the regional dynamics and the al-Qaeda presence in the Middle East.
The U.S. National Security Council will maintain a central role in the counterterrorism approach, aiming to manage global threats effectively. Meanwhile, the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan continues to harbour al-Qaeda and the Haqqani network, posing a persistent challenge to the U.S. and its allies.
As the world grapples with the ongoing threat of Islamist extremism, the U.S. strategy of precision counterterrorism and strategic alliances promises to be a crucial tool in the fight against global terrorism.
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