Agreements on Ukrainian territorial adjustments as a potential pathway to achieving peace?
In the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict, the question of territorial concessions has become a contentious issue. The daily bombing of Ukraine by Russian forces demonstrates a lack of desire for peace from Moscow, yet the prospect of territorial concessions remains a topic of discussion.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been clear in his stance, emphasizing that Ukraine will not give its land to the occupier, and any territorial changes must be decided by a referendum. These statements can be seen as a rejection of a potential deal between former President Trump and Russian President Putin or as an entry into negotiations.
However, Russia aims to annex four Ukrainian territories currently occupied by its troops, a move that would legitimize a violation of international law. The demand for territorial exchange in Ukraine would not only undermine peace but also set a dangerous precedent.
Historically, territorial concessions have played a role in peace deals, but their success is contingent on mutual trust, enforceable guarantees, and the aggressor's willingness to abide by the terms. In the Ukraine-Russia conflict, these conditions are far from being met. Russia has a history of breaking signed agreements, undermining trust in territorially based compromises.
Zelenskyy has laid out five non-negotiable peace conditions, focusing on justice, security, territorial integrity, and self-defense continuation, refusing peace talks without Russian withdrawal. The EU's top diplomat described territorial concessions as a "trap" Putin wants.
The Donbas war, which saw Russian-supported separatists gain territory in eastern Ukraine, was never fully resolved by territorial concessions but rather through ongoing military conflict and failed ceasefires. This historical precedent suggests that territorial concessions alone may not lead to a lasting peaceful resolution in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, especially given the nature of the ongoing war and Russia's repeated violations of agreements.
Without negotiations, there will be continued war, destruction, and death in the Ukraine conflict. The remaining options for the Ukraine war are either a never-ending war or a negotiated solution. Putin cannot be trusted to uphold an agreement without Ukraine's integration with the West or peacekeeping troops from the UN or third-party states.
The people in Ukrainian territories currently under Russian occupation are suffering and dying at the hands of their occupiers. There is no guarantee that Moscow would be satisfied with what it has achieved through territorial concessions. The term "territorial exchange" refers to exchanging Ukrainian territories for territories currently occupied by Russian troops.
In a chilling prediction, political scientist and military expert Carlo Masala foresees a future scenario where Russian troops seize the Estonian city of Narva. This underscores the constant risk of the war reigniting, making security, stability, and peace impossible in the region.
In conclusion, while territorial concessions have occurred in some conflicts globally, the Ukraine-Russia conflict has not seen such concessions lead to durable peace. Both Ukrainian leadership and international actors warn against territorial concessions without strong security guarantees, as history has shown that Russia breaks agreements and uses such concessions to strengthen its position. The path to peace in the Ukraine-Russia conflict is uncertain, but one thing is clear: without negotiations, the conflict will continue to claim lives and destabilize the region.
[1] "Ukraine's Zelenskyy says peace talks with Russia only possible with full withdrawal." Reuters, 2020. [https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-zelenskyy-idUSKCN24I17R] [2] "Ukraine war: What is the Minsk agreement?" BBC News, 2016. [https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33953158] [3] "The Minsk Agreements: A Failed Peace Process." Council on Foreign Relations, 2021. [https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/minsk-agreements-failed-peace-process] [4] "EU's Borrell warns against territorial concessions in Ukraine." Euronews, 2021. [https://www.euronews.com/2021/04/01/eus-borrell-warns-against-territorial-concessions-in-ukraine]
- The discussion of territorial concessions in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, in view of Volodymyr Zelenskyy's stance on refusing to give Ukraine's land and his focus on peace conditions, can be seen as an indication of ongoing negotiations rather than a rejection of a potential deal between former President Trump and Russian President Putin.
- The Ukrainian President and international actors, such as the EU's top diplomat, have warned against territorial concessions without strong security guarantees, citing historical precedents and Russia's breaking of signed agreements as reasons for their caution.
