Agreement between Conservatives and Reformists now secures Reform's vulnerability
Hello! Ready to dive into the world of politics today? Let's talk about the potential electoral pact between the Conservatives and Reform UK.
Morning! It seems like everyone's whispering about a possible union between the Conservatives and Reform UK - both right-wing parties. Rumors surrounding such a pact have been popping up in Westminster, and recently, Conservative mayor Ben Houchen hinted that there will be a coalition, stating there "has to be a coming together" of the two parties.
But here's where things get a little tricky. If you're thinking about the partnership happening before the next general election, I'd have to say, it's unlikely.
Why, you ask? Well, it all comes down to power play. As Robert Shrimsley points out in his recent column, politics is never about a "merger of equals"; there's always a buyer. In this case, the Tories would be the ultimate buyers, and on poor terms for Nigel Farage and Reform UK.
So, let's think about it - would Reform UK have more or less than five MPs after the next election? This question acts as a yardstick for gauging whether there's any chance of a merger. Every MP gained by Reform would shift the balance of power during negotiations, but we get a clue from history.
You may remember the formation of the SDP in the 80s and their negotiations with the Liberals. Despite the SDP seemingly stronger in the polls, it was the Liberals' pre-existing organization and size that ultimately gave them the upper hand. This ultimately resulted in the modern Liberal Democrats, a liberal party at its core due to this past merger.
The Conservatives have more MPs than Reform, and a pact would embed a rival on the right permanently. As such, neither side has any incentive to negotiate at the moment. They are like enemy forces racing to occupy zones of influence at the end of World War II, and any deal now would only benefit one at the expense of the other.
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Did you know?
- Robert Shrimsley, Georgina Quach, Stephen, and our newsletter Inside Politics can also be found on Bluesky and X.
- Reform UK is currently ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, but this doesn't necessarily mean a better bargaining position when it comes to electoral pacts.
- In 1981, the newly formed SDP negotiated seat allocation with the Liberals. Despite the SDP's stronger standing in the polls, the Liberal Party's pre-existing organization and size ultimately played a significant role in the power dynamic during their negotiations.
- It appears that both Robert Shrimsley and our newsletter Inside Politics discuss relevant insights on policy-and-legislation, general-news, business, and politics.
- The potential electoral pact between the Conservatives and Reform UK, though often discussed, might be irrelevant in the near term, given the power dynamics between the two parties.
- Agreeing to a merger might not be beneficial for Reform UK, considering their smaller number of MPs compared to the Conservatives, as history suggests that pre-existing organizations and size can significantly influence negotiations.
- In the world of politics, a merger is rarely a merger of equals, with one party often holding a more influential position, similar to the notion of a buyer and a seller.
- Despite the current poll standings, the Conservatives may have more irrefutable strength in negotiations due to their larger number of MPs, making a pact unnecessary for either party at this time.
