The CDU/CSU Maintains Lead, SPD Dips
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) continues to make strides, while the CDU/CSU records a minor loss, remaining at a strong 30%. The "traffic light" coalition parties – SPD (16%), Greens (13%), and FDP (6%) – have sustained their positions from the previous week.
The Left Party is once again on the brink of missing out on securing a seat in the Bundestag, with their support at 4%. The remaining parties could capture 9% of the vote, with 3% comprising independent voters.
Unlike the CDU/CSU and the "traffic light" coalition, the Greens have reported a slight decline in support, now at 13%. According to Bild am Sonntag, the SPD and the Greens are closely trailing behind the AfD in the race for political influence. Despite AfD's gains, the CDU's main rival, the Greens, has yet to surpass the SPD in popularity as per the latest polls.
CDU/CSU: Consistent and Widely Supported
The CDU/CSU has continually held a strong position in polls, with major surveys showing them at 29% and 30% of voter support respectively. They have garnered broad support across various demographic sectors, as reported by the SINUS-Institut study, which highlights the party winning over progressive voters in previously unaffected milieus.
SPD: On a Downward Trend
The SPD has been experiencing a decline in popularity, presently polling at 16%. Various forecasts indicate significant losses for the SPD in the upcoming election, with their projected vote share down ten percentage points from the previous election.
Greens: Stable but Slightly Lower
The Greens, despite maintaining a stable position, are now registering lower support at 12% to 14% in various surveys.
AfD: Steadfast but Slightly Lower
The AfD remains steady around 20% to 21% in recent polls, but has seen a slight drop compared to previous weeks. The AfD is particularly competitive in middle-class milieus, evident in concerns around rising living costs and economic uncertainty.
FDP: Below the Threshold
The FDP remains below the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation, polling at 4% in most surveys. Regardless, there is a slim chance for the FDP to claim seats if they surpass this threshold, as suggested by the YouGov MRP model.
BSW: Uncertainty Remains
The BSW has experienced a decline, now polling at 5%. There is uncertainty surrounding whether the BSW will secure a spot in the Bundestag, as their vote share estimation is close to the threshold.
