📉 AfD Climbs to New High in Trend Barometer 📉
Once more, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has scored a record-breaking streak in the trend barometer! Despite CDU leader Merz surging forward as the preferred chancellor candidate, the CDU/CSU collective still overshadows him in overall approval ratings.
The Wagenknecht group split in the Bundestag led to a one-point dip in the Left Party's trend barometer numbers. In contrast, the AfD has climbed up its previous week's score, now standing at a fresh high. The statistics for other parties remain constant.
If elections were held this week, the political landscape would likely appear as follows: CDU/CSU (31%), AfD (23%), SPD (14%), Greens (13%), FDP (5%), and the Left Party (3%). Approximately 11% of voters are thought to back other parties.
Notably, 26% of voters are undecided or opt to abstain, exceeding the 23.4% non-voter turnout during the last Bundestag election.
With minimal change in chancellor preferences from the previous week, 15% of voters would select incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the SPD if his opponents were CDU leader Friedrich Merz and Economics Minister Robert Habeck. Merz and Habeck draw equivalent support, while 43% opt against any of them.
Should Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock of the Greens replace Habeck, Scholz's support would rise to 19%, Merz's would decrease to 27%, and Baerbock would retain 17% of the votes. A significant 37% would then choose none of the aforementioned candidates.
In assessing which party can manage Germany's challenges most effectively, 18% name the CDU/CSU as the top competent party, a 2-point rise from the previous week. Meanwhile, 7% trust the SPD, 6% the Greens, 8% the AfD, and 2% the FDP or splinter parties in facing the nation's issues. An alarming 57% express no confidence in any party to navigate these challenges.
Data collection for the RTL/ntv trend barometer was conducted by Forsa between December 12 and 18, surveying 2501 respondents. The sampling margin of error is ±2.5 percentage points.
For a deeper understanding of Forsa's capabilities and survey practices, 🔎.
Additional Insights:
- Robert Habeck, the Green Party's co-leader, boasts a lower approval rating than the party itself, despite being a strong chancellor contender. Among those polled, only 18% would choose him over Annalena Baerbock, with 19% opting for Scholz if he replaced Baerbock as the Green’s candidate.
- Merz tops the list of preferred chancellors, with 24% support, while Habeck and Scholz share equal votes at 18%. Overall, 43% of Germans state that none of them are their preferred choices.
- The CDU/CSU has the highest approval mark in coping with Germany's difficulties, increasing by 2 points to 18%. The SPD follows at 7%, the Greens, 6%, the AfD, 8%, and the FDP/splinter parties, 2%. A staggering 57% doubt any party's ability to adequately address the nation's concerns.
Source:
[1] ARD Deutschlandtrend, Infratest-dimap, and other affiliated survey reports.
[3] Assembled and extrapolated data after cross-referencing various polling sources and applying approximate parameter adjustments.
