Aaron Judge Consistently Shatters Baseball Records
Slammin' Slugger: Aaron Judge's Surreal Season
Aaron Judge is blowing minds in MLB like a Category 5 hurricane. His bat is blazing hot, boasting a mind-boggling .427 batting average as we dive into May. That's right, we're talking about the real deal.
It's not just his average that's turning heads. Judge is also slugging it out with a .761 slugging percentage and sharing the home run lead with acount of 10 long balls. But here's the kicker, this isn't your average Joe, rookie, or even seasoned vet. This is just the start of the season for Judge, and he's already making history.
NEW YORK - New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) celebrates his solo home run during the sixth inning with teammates against the Toronto Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium on April 27, 2025. Photo: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
Aaron Judge Is Demolishing the Game
By Fangraph's calculations, Judge has racked up an astounding 3.2 wins above replacement (WAR) for the Yankees as of May 1. That's one of the highest first month figures ever recorded by stat-keepers. He's not just crushing it on the offensive side of the ball either.
Judge has also proven his mettle in the outfield, delivering above-average defense and an impressive 24.5 runs above average on offense. And here's the kicker, he's managed to do all that in a single month.
For some perspective, Judge's 24.5 runs above average would have placed him 22nd in the entire 2024 MLB season. He's absolutely shattered the curve this year.
The Underlying Stats
Per Baseball Savant, Judge is in a class of his own.
He's 100th percentile in batting run value, expected weighted on base average, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, average exit velocity, barrel percentage, and hard hit percentage. He's also wise to the pitches, ranking 92nd percentile in chase percentage.
In short, we've never seen anything like this.
In this era where offense is as rare as old-school baseball cards, Judge is tearing the game apart. Sure, it's early to start the "on pace" debate, but Judge's projected numbers are downright ludicrous.
By Fangraph's calculations, he's on pace for a staggering 16.7 WAR, which would be an MLB record. On top of that lightning-fast .427 batting average, he's projected to hit 52 home runs, drive in 152 runs, score 167 runs, and steal 16 bases. Wow.
Judge has already claimed an MVP title and is a strong contender to repeat this year. And yet, he remains surprisingly undervalued for the success he's enjoying. It's mind-boggling stuff. We might be witnessing the best season in baseball history.
Contextualizing Aaron Judge
- Home Runs (Single Season): Judge set the AL single-season record with 62 HRs in 2022, but the all-time MLB single-season mark is 73 by Barry Bonds (2001).
- Batting Average: Judge’s career average is significantly below the all-time leaders; Ty Cobb’s .366 (minimum 3,000 at-bats).
- RBI, Runs: Judge is not on pace to reach Hank Aaron’s RBI (2,297) or Rickey Henderson's runs (2,295) records, both considered milestones that may not be surpassed anytime soon.
- WAR: Judge’s career WAR (as of early 2025) is far from the all-time leader (Babe Ruth, 182.4); even a career trajectory of a Hall of Famer doesn't bring him close in the short term.
Judge’s Pace and Prospects
Judge's 2025 season pace would have to be historically unprecedented in multiple categories to threaten the all-time MLB records in batting average, home runs, runs batted in, runs, and WAR [1][5]. If he were to maintain or exceed his current pace for several more seasons, he could potentially challenge the home run record, but it would still be a monumental challenge.
Aaron Judge's Remarkable BetWith the stunning performance he's displayed in the early stages of the 2025 MLB season, Aaron Judge's odds for reaching and potentially breaking the all-time home run record are gaining significant attention in sports betting. As of now, Judge is offering exceptional odds to surpass the current record of 73 home runs set by Barry Bonds in 2001.
Judge's Historical OddsBetting markets have Judge at a steep underdog to eclipse the legendary Bonds' milestone, with odds as high as 5/1. However, such odds could change drastically if Judge continues his torrid pace, making history in the world of sports betting as well.
It's a captivating twist to Judge's astounding season in Major League Baseball, as fans, experts, and bettors alike wait and wonder if Judge will not only demolish the game but make a long-lasting impact on the sports betting landscape.
