A world lacking a dominant power leading the global arena
In recent years, a seismic shift has been underway in the global power structure, marking the end of the American-led world order known as Pax Americana. This transition, which has been accelerated by the Trump administration, was, in fact, an inevitable consequence of geopolitical, geoeconomic, and demographic forces.
For decades, the United States had provided a framework for global stability, having played a significant role in defeating Nazism and resisting Soviet communism for 45 years. However, the U.S., historically reluctant to embrace the role of global hegemon, has shown signs of leaning towards isolationism.
The rules-based world order, under Pax Americana, had been the cornerstone of global stability from the 1950s until the collapse of the Soviet Union. After the Soviet Union's fall, the United States appeared to be the sole remaining hegemon. Yet, American protection is no longer guaranteed for European countries, leading to frustration and feelings of exploitation among Americans.
Europe, traditionally reliant on American security guarantees, finds itself disoriented without a hegemon to lean on. The Trump administration's readiness to act forcefully when U.S. interests are threatened and its trend towards less engagement abroad has further exacerbated this sense of uncertainty.
Meanwhile, European states like Germany, France, and the EU as a whole have been asserting themselves on the international stage. They have strengthened their economic competitiveness, enhanced sovereignty through better integration of financial markets, reduced trade barriers within the EU, and developed a coherent external economic policy to reduce dependencies, especially on critical raw materials and technologies dominated by Asia.
These emerging economies are no longer content to operate under Western-defined "universal values." The rising world majority is charting its own course, and its way will not be Western nor Chinese. The current concern in Western politics and diplomacy is the unraveling of the rules-based world order.
As the global crises multiplied, the world repeatedly turned to Washington, but American willingness to act has diminished. This has left a power vacuum that is being filled by emerging economies. The global power structure has shifted, with these economies representing over two-thirds of the global population and carrying growing weight.
In response, Europe must take responsibility for safeguarding its own interests in security, economic competitiveness, and political stability. A cohesive defense structure, possibly a "European NATO" including Turkey and the United Kingdom, is needed in Europe. The Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, has emphasized the need for Asian allies to contribute more to regional defense.
China's interests in the Pacific are a concern for the U.S., and Russia is no longer considered a strategic threat by Washington. The warning signs of this shift had been visible but were largely ignored, especially in Europe.
As we move forward, it is clear that Europe must urgently deregulate and embrace open trade to foster innovation and competitiveness. The new world order will not be defined by a single hegemon, but by a complex interplay of global forces. Europe must navigate these changes with strategic foresight and adaptability to secure its future.
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