A United States-mediated accord between Azerbaijan and Armenia reshapes the geostrategic landscape
U.S. Steps into the Forefront of Caucasus Peace Process
The Caucasus region, long a stage for conflict and geopolitical rivalry, now stands at a historic turning point. The United States, historically a peripheral player in the region, has recently taken a more active role in brokering peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
For decades, the U.S. largely viewed the South Caucasus as Russia’s strategic backyard and thus a secondary focus. However, this perspective has shifted, with the U.S. serving as one of the co-chairs of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group, established in 1992 during the First Karabakh War. Yet, the U.S.'s involvement was often influenced by domestic ethnic lobbies, such as the Armenian diaspora, leading to policies leaning towards Armenian nationalism rather than balanced mediation.
Recently, under former President Donald Trump, the U.S. took a more direct role in the peace process, culminating in a joint declaration signed in Washington, D.C., in August 2025. This marked a significant strategic shift, ending years of frozen conflict primarily mediated by Russia and the OSCE Minsk Group, which the parties agreed to dissolve.
The U.S.'s approach reflects several foreign policy dynamics. One reason for this increased engagement is the desire for strategic influence in a geopolitically sensitive region near Iran, projecting American power economically and militarily without deploying troops on the ground. Additionally, the U.S. has strengthened ties with Azerbaijan, a key regional partner allied with Israel and involved in Middle Eastern security dynamics, with the U.S. easing arms export restrictions to Baku.
Moreover, the peace agreement has been leveraged to promote major infrastructure projects, such as the "Trump International Peace and Prosperity Route" (TRIPP) through the Armenian segment of the Zangezur Corridor, advancing U.S. economic interests and regional connectivity.
However, the actual peace agreement has been criticized as limited in substance, with unresolved core issues such as the status of Nagorno-Karabakh and related constitutional questions in Armenia. Nonetheless, the U.S. has evolved from a cautious observer influenced by diaspora politics and rivalry with Russia into an assertive peace broker poised to reshape regional alignments in the Caucasus through diplomacy, economic initiatives, and security partnerships, reflecting a convergence of domestic political ambitions and strategic foreign policy interests.
The international community recognizes Turkey as the key actor in paving the way toward resolving the Caucasus conflict, as Azerbaijan's restoration of its internationally recognized borders after the Second Karabakh War was made possible through Ankara's military and diplomatic support. The signing of the agreement in the U.S. is considered a diplomatic success for Turkey, as it prevents Ankara from coming into direct confrontation with Russia and China.
The foundation of lasting peace in the Caucasus, according to Azerbaijan and Turkey, remains power, the only enduring currency in international relations. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's comment, "If you wait for the hegemon, the hegemon comes, lays down the law, gives you none of the results you wanted, takes what it came for, leaves you with more problems than you had before, and walks away," is relevant to the U.S.'s involvement in the Caucasus issue.
In conclusion, the U.S.'s role in the Caucasus conflict has been characterized by fluctuating involvement shaped by its domestic political considerations and broader foreign policy objectives. However, the recent marked shift towards active engagement, especially in the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace process, suggests a new era in the region's geopolitical dynamics.
- The U.S.'s newfound interest in the Caucasus region, particularly in facilitating peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, has penetrated the broader landscape of world news.
- The U.S., traditionally seen as a mere observer in the South Caucasus, has become a crucial player in the political landscape under the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group.
- As the U.S. deepens its involvement in the Caucasus, its policy-and-legislation regarding Azerbaijan alliances and arms export restrictions have gained widespread attention in general-news discussions across Europe.
- The arts community, looking to the impact of politics on social structures, has started exploring the role of Ankara, Turkey, in shaping the peace process and its significance in a global context.
