Drone Strikes on Russia's Aircraft: Could this be a Game Changer for the Ongoing War?
A significant air attack on Russian aircraft potentially alters the ongoing conflict.
Ukraine's daring drone attacks on four Russian military airfields might have left a significant dent in Russia's strategic artillery, but what does that mean for the ongoing conflict in the region? Experts offer their insights, cautioning against hasty assessments and emphasizing the importance of key factors like the A50 reconnaissance aircraft.
The previously unseen action resulted in the potential demise or damage of 41 Russian aircraft, according to Ukraine's internal security service. Of these, 34 percent of strategic carriers for cruise missiles at primary airfields were allegedly eliminated, as reported by SBU chief Vasyl Malyuk. Although the consequences for the broader war are yet to be fully understood, some experts believe that there could be a noticeable decline in Russian waves of air attacks utilizing cruise missiles.
Military expert Gustav Gressel suggests that the extent to which these air attacks will decrease is contingent on the severity of the damage inflicted on the affected aircraft. He explains that strategic bombers have often served as the limiting factor for waves of cruise missile attacks. The size of these waves is limited by the number of aircraft in the air.
Similarly, Colonel Markus Reisner sees potential restrictions being imposed on the Russian Air Force, given their presumed initial numbers of around 100 aircraft. If a significant proportion of the 50 to 60 operational jets were destroyed, this could have an immediate impact on the number of air attacks on infrastructure and civilian targets.
Assessing the Destruction of Important A50 Reconnaissance Aircraft
The drone strikes are reported to have targeted heavy bombers of the types Tu-95, Tu-22M3, and Tu-160, as well as one or more A50 reconnaissance aircraft. These aircraft are crucial in coordinating air operations, selecting targets, and deploying weapons like glide bombs. According to Gressel, Russia only has six to seven operational A50s remaining. If several were destroyed, this could significantly impact the Russian Air Force, particularly their glide bomb launches, which currently pose a significant threat to Ukrainian defenders.
Spared Aircraft Remain a Threat
Security expert Frank Sauer describes the attacks as "spectacular" and "noteworthy," but adds that Russia still holds sufficient forces for nightly attacks on Ukrainian cities. One single Tu-95, several of which were destroyed, is capable of carrying between six and fourteen cruise missiles.
Toward a New Strategy?
While the impact of the drone attacks will be crucial to observe in the coming weeks and months, the experts share a common belief that this event will not mark the turning point in the war. Security expert Sauer believes that the Russians will improve their protection measures to prevent similar attacks in the future, requiring the Ukrainians to come up with alternative strategies. This conclusion is echoed by the Foreign Policy Research Institute's ex-US Marine officer Rob Lee, who does not expect the attack to deter Russia from continuing its invasion of Ukraine.
The strike offers a morale boost and serves as a powerful propaganda tool for Ukraine, signaling its ability to target Russian strategic assets deep within Russia. The Czech Foreign Minister, Jan Lipavský, even anticipates a potential decrease in Russian combat aircraft violating NATO airspace by 30% as a result of the attacks.
Overall, while the drone attacks have disrupted Russia's military strategy, it remains to be seen if this will significantly alter the dynamics of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
- Air Attacks
- Propaganda and Morale
- Combat Aircraft
- Ukraine
- Russia
References:
- Source: ntv.de, Robin Grützmacher and Frauke Niemeyer
- The drone attacks on Russian aircraft in Ukraine offer a significant morale boost and powerful propaganda tool for Ukraine, signaling their capability to target Russian strategic assets.
- With critical aircraft like the A50 reconnaissance aircraft reported to be among the targets, these drone strikes may present an initial impact on the number of air attacks on infrastructure and civilian targets, potentially limiting the Russian Air Force's glide bomb launches, which pose a significant threat to Ukrainian defenders.
