"A significant advancement has been made"
In a significant development, a meeting in Washington on August 18, 2025, between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, former U.S. President Donald Trump, and several European leaders has strengthened the coordination effort between Europe and the United States to achieve a just and lasting peace that protects Ukraine’s interests and European security.
The key outcome of the meeting was the United States reaffirming its willingness to provide security guarantees for Ukraine, a crucial issue raised by European partners and Zelensky himself. The security guarantees discussed involve potential U.S. military aid and funding, aimed at deterring Russian aggression and building confidence in any negotiated peace deal.
While the specifics of these guarantees remain somewhat undefined, the commitment from the U.S. to rejoin collective efforts or work with the "Coalition of the Willing" was clearly articulated. However, these guarantees are not as legally or institutionally binding as NATO’s Article 5 collective defense clause.
President Zelensky emphasised that any security mechanism must "work in practice," akin to NATO’s Article 5, which commits member states to collective defense. Yet, the mechanism being discussed outside of NATO membership is by nature less formalised and binding than Article 5.
The effectiveness of these security guarantees depends heavily on clarity, commitment level, and military capability backing these guarantees. Unlike Article 5, which requires automatic military response upon member attack, these guarantees may involve negotiated, case-by-case responses, which can introduce ambiguity and potentially reduce deterrence power.
Meanwhile, in Belarus, Russian troops have entered the country as part of the preparations for "Zapad-2025" exercises. Ukraine's primary interest lies in a free, democratic Belarus oriented towards Europe and friendly towards Ukraine. The presence of Russian forces in Belarus poses a threat to Ukraine, EU countries, and Belarusians themselves.
In a positive development, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has released political prisoners, including Sergey Tikhanovsky. Maxim Pleshko, a Ukrainian expert, compared Ukraine's security guarantees to the format of relations the US has with Japan and South Korea, not to NATO's Article 5.
Strategically, Ukraine's national interest lies in a strong and capable army to deter Russian aggression. Russia is deploying its intelligence and UAVs in Belarus, and Ukraine needs more high-precision and long-range weapons to effectively counter this threat.
The discussion also focused on the possibility of a meeting between Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin. While the details of such a meeting remain to be seen, it is clear that the political landscape in Eastern Europe is shifting, and the international community is closely watching developments.
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