A possible heatwave could be approaching the UK after the passing of Storm Floris.
The UK is currently experiencing a very warm and dry summer, particularly in the southern and eastern regions. According to weather forecasts, this trend is set to continue throughout August, with high temperatures and below-average rainfall expected.
The exact path of Tropical Storm Dexter, currently near Bermuda, could influence how long the warmth will last and how close certain areas will reach heatwave thresholds. Weather models suggest there could be further intervals of heat in August, with temperatures in mainland Europe reaching the mid-30s Celsius.
Southern and eastern England are expected to be particularly affected, with potential for temperatures to climb into the high 20s Celsius and some areas potentially exceeding 30 degrees Celsius. The average temperatures for the UK in August are expected to be above normal, consistent with the broader trends associated with climate warming and prevailing weather forecasts.
The jet stream has moved closer to the UK, allowing low-pressure systems to affect the weather. This has resulted in a series of weather events, such as Storm Floris, which brought increased winds and rain showers earlier in the month. However, high pressure is expected to bring drier conditions across much of the UK, especially compared to the previous weeks.
In August 2022, the UK experienced one of its hottest summers on record, with heatwaves and consistent above-average temperatures. By the end of the summer, the UK had set an all-time high temperature of 40.3°C. Southern and eastern England were particularly affected by dry conditions, with rainfall well below average. This contributed to drought conditions, as some areas in the northeast and east had rainfall levels at just 58%-60% of the long-term average, the driest since 1921 for that period.
Soil moisture deficits increased, especially in the southern and eastern parts, with river flows notably low in rivers such as the River Ely Ouse in the east and others in central England. This situation resulted in the implementation of hosepipe bans and the occurrence of wildfires.
Looking ahead to August 2025, the summer up to mid-August has been one of the warmest on record, with a mean temperature 1.6°C above the long-term average and persistent warmth driven by dry grounds, high pressure systems, and warm surrounding seas. Early August 2025 was wetter compared to previous weeks in some parts, but central and eastern England still experienced low rainfall amounts, reinforcing dry conditions.
In summary, for August 2022, southern and eastern UK regions experienced exceptionally warm and dry weather, which contributed to drought-like conditions with notably low rainfall and soil moisture deficits. The pattern was characterized by heatwaves and record-breaking highs particularly notable in eastern and southern England. It is too early to accurately predict which days will be the warmest, but predictions suggest that warmer spells could emerge throughout August.
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