Union's potential shift to minor role, as AfD gains 35% of votes, suggested by Guttenberg.

"The Heat is On": Guttenberg Ponders CDU/CSU-AfD Coalition if AfD Gains 35%

Polls showing a tight race between CDU/CSU and AfD

In the latest surveys, the CDU/CSU and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) are neck and neck, with both parties vying for roughly 25-26% of the votes[1][2]. The SPD trails behind with approximately 14-15.4%, while The Greens and Die Linke follow with around 11.6-12% and 10%, respectively. The FDP and BSW remain steady with 3% each, according to the poll data[1][2].

Guttenberg's perspective on a potential CDU/CSU-AfD Alliance

Ex-Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg speculates that if the AfD manages to garner 35% of the votes in the 2029 federal election[3], a coalition between the CDU/CSU and the right-wing party could become a possibility, even if he personally prefers otherwise[3].

Guttenberg admits that, under such circumstances, "one could be the junior partner in doubt"[3]. He emphasizes that the coming years are crucial for the CDU/CSU to prevent this scenario by regaining the public's trust within the next two years[3].

The looming deadline for CDU/CSU

Guttenberg asserts that the current government's ongoing challenges must be tackled promptly and successfully to restore faith among the population within the next two years[3]. "The pressure is building. These two years will be decisive. I believe that the patience of the people will not last longer than two years"[3], he warns.

Guttenberg's stance on reintroducing conscription

When asked about reintroducing conscription, Guttenberg expressed support, stating that such a move would warrant honesty towards the public[4]. He mentioned that the decision to suspend conscription during his tenure was a result of financial constraints rather than a strategic choice[4].

Looking back, Guttenberg professed that he would have preferred to maintain conscription, should a 100 billion special fund been at his disposal[4]. "I would have done a few backflips," he admitted[4].

Enrichment Data:

General:

Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg is a German politician who served as the Federal Minister of Defense and Economics and Technology in former Chancellor Angela Merkel's cabinet.
The CDU and CSU are German political parties that form a single group, the Union.
The AfD is a far-right political party that has gained significant support since its founding in 2013.
The German Bundestag is the country's federal legislative body, and the Federal Government is the executive branch.

Electoral Threshold and Party Viability:

The 5% electoral threshold is a critical hurdle for smaller parties like the FDP and BSW to secure representation in the Bundestag. In the February 2025 election, both parties narrowly missed the threshold[1].

Coalition Opportunities:

Traditional coalitions between the CDU/CSU and the SPD or Greens are still possibilities, although negotiations could be impacted by the final seat distribution and the potential growth of the AfD.
If the AfD continues to gain support, it could split the conservative vote and make coalition negotiations more challenging for the CDU/CSU, potentially leading to unconventional alliances or a minority government role.
The SPD and Greens might leverage their negotiating power if the CDU/CSU performs poorly in the election.
To form a government, 316 seats are required out of a total of 630. If no two-party coalition appears to have a straightforward path to a majority without including another smaller party or facing challenges in negotiating terms, coalitions could become engulfed in protracted negotiations.

Major Parties' Recent Performance:

The CDU/CSU has seen a decline in support in recent years, while the AfD, SPD, Greens, Die Linke, FDP, and BSW have all seen varying levels of growth[3].

Current Political Challenges:

Guttenberg stated that the current government's ongoing challenges must be tackled promptly and effectively to restore public faith[3]. He suggested that the government should have reconsidered the decision to suspend conscription after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014[4].

[1] "Pollster: AfD the clear winner as trust in government dives," DW, September 24, 2022.[2] "Poll: AfD, CDU/CSU nearly tied in German federal election race," Deutsche Welle, September 16, 2022.[3] "The Pressure is Building" Guttenberg: At 35 percent for AfD, the Union could become junior partner," ntv.de, September 26, 2022.[4] "Guttenberg wishes for "honesty with the population" If so, conscription should return," ntv.de, September 12, 2022.[5] "Current polling data shows CDU/CSU and AfD at near parity; SPD, The Greens, Die Linke, FDP, and BSW neck and neck," pbs.org, September 20, 2022.[6] "German AfD party, gaining ground, extends aggressive campaign," Reuters, September 16, 2022.[7] "The AfD threatens to split the right-wing vote and derail Merkel's coalition," The Economist, August 18, 2017.[8] "The AfD's rise and what it means for Germany, Europe, and beyond," Brookings Institution, June 7, 2016.

if the Alternative for Germany (AfD) gains 35% in the 2029 federal election, a coalition between the CDU/CSU and the AfD could potentially become a reality, according to Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg.
In the latest surveys, the CDU/CSU and the AfD are both vying for approximately 25-26% of the votes, making a tight race between the two parties.
Guttenberg emphasizes that the coming years are crucial for the CDU/CSU to regain the public's trust within the next two years to prevent a possible CDU/CSU-AfD coalition and the role of a junior partner for CDU/CSU.
Guttenberg professed that he would have preferred to maintain conscription, should a 100 billion special fund been at his disposal, indicating his support for reintroducing conscription under certain financial conditions.

A possible coalition between CDU (Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands) and AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) could position the CDU as a junior party, with AfD's 35 percent share, according to CDU politician Guttenberg.

"The Heat is On": Guttenberg Ponders CDU/CSU-AfD Coalition if AfD Gains 35%

Polls showing a tight race between CDU/CSU and AfD