Can Ukraine Stand Alone Against Russia? "Hopes rest on a Stronger Germany"
A new German Chancellor sparks optimism among the populace
In the heart of Eastern Europe, scholars and strategists in Kyiv are deliberating on Ukraine's defense against its adversary, Russia, and the Western alliance's presence in the face of an uncertain future. Ex-president Poroschenko expresses optimism about the new German Chancellor while advocating for a contingency plan in the absence of heavy USA support.
Amidst the celebration of Russia's victory against Nazism in Moscow's Red Square, approximations are made in Kyiv about how Ukraine can survive in a potential confrontation with less or even without the assistance of the USA. What remains of transatlantic solidarity under US President Trump, and can there be peace? If not, which weapons could turn the tide?
Former President Poroschenko, speaking on the sidelines of the Kyiv Security Forum, acknowledges the precarious situation Ukraine confronts: "We are on the frontline, lacking not just manpower but also equipment, ammunition, and weapons, especially air defense." He hints at his optimism in the new German Chancellor, asserting that he is committed to fortifying Germany's leadership role across Europe while demonstrating it.
The Western Alliance's Cracks
After Trump's phone call with Zelenskyy, it's clear that Western unity has shown obvious fissures. Ukraine, battling Russian troops for over a decade, refuses to accept the fracturing of its allies. This dispute stimulates numerous discussions at the Kyiv Security Forum, where experts from Western nations, including Germany, gather to brainstorm solutions. Ukraine's former Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk appeals to the allies, stating, "We will restore the world order again, just as we did 80 years ago."
Weapons for Military Triumph
During his speech, Yatsenyuk draws a parallel between the past and the present, reminding the attendees that when the free world attempted to make a deal with Hitler in 1938, it resulted in disaster. "Hitler launched a large-scale invasion of Ukraine." Today, Putin plays by a different set of rules, with the white house exerting pressure on Ukraine but making few demands on Russia. Trump's former Ukraine envoy Kurt Volker emphasizes that military deterrence is essential to prevent peace.
Germany's Investment in Ukraine's Defense
Later, Volker notes that Putin will never accept peace, stating that Ukraine requires advanced weaponry and military technology to deter Russia. He emphasizes that the pressure on Moscow must increase significantly in order to shift Russian conduct towards a ceasefire. Germany, with its cutting-edge weaponry, appears ready to take up the mantle, investing both financially and strategically into Ukraine's defense.
The Rise of Drones on the Battlefield
Commander Vyacheslav Shutenko, head of an unmanned systems battalion, highlights the growing importance of drones in modern warfare. Drones enable real-time intelligence, surveillance, targeting, and even precision strikes, making them force multipliers in asymmetric warfare. Ukraine requires scalable drone production and uninterrupted drone supply to its military and combat units for victory against Russia's powerful army.
Technological innovation leaps are propelled in Ukraine by the "will to survive," emphasizes tech entrepreneur Dmytro Shymkiw. Adaptations between engineers and troops occur in ongoing operations, and only the most advanced technologies can protect soldiers' lives, benefitting the allies' defense industries like Germany and Britain.
Ukraine's Prospects Without USA Assistance
Despite the importance of drones in Ukraine's defense, Commander Shutenko acknowledges that Ukraine cannot win the war alone. Diplomatic support with sanctions, aerial support, and artillery are equally crucial components to Ukraine's defense strategy. If successful, Ukraine could inflict such heavy losses on the Russian military that they would beg for negotiations and ultimately peace.
Mistakes in Negotiation Approaches
As negotiations continue to stumble, security expert Julia Kazdobina, director of the Ukrainian Foundation for Security Research, raises concerns about the USA's approach to peace. "The US government engages in peace talks without considering the motivation behind the war or the history. It equates both sides of the conflict and overlooks Russia's aggression," remarks Kazdobina. Any attempt at appeasement would harm Ukraine more than aid Russia.
A War Crimes Tribunal for Accountability
In an interview on the sidelines of the forum, Kazdobina argues that other European nations are already embroiled in the conflict. "Hybrid methods directed towards weakening potential victims come first, followed by confrontation on the battlefield," she explains. Even if it appears that peace still prevails and only hybrid attacks are visible, they have already entered a state of war.
Ideally, Ukraine would continue to receive aid from the USA to sustain its defensive efforts. However, experts view the ratification of the resource agreement with the United States by the Ukrainian parliament as a positive sign. While Steven Pifer, US ambassador to Ukraine from 1998 to 2000, recommends continuing US involvement, he also stresses the necessity of a contingency plan for Ukraine: "Kyiv must have a backup plan."
- Ukraine
- Russia
- Friedrich Merz
- Ceasefire
- Arms Delivery
- Donald Trump
- Vladimir Putin
- Drones
Germany's Influence in Ukraine's Defense
Germany emerges as one of Ukraine's most significant allies, offering crucial support through advanced weapon systems, joint production partnerships, and financial investments. The German government provides air defense systems such as Patriot, IRIS-T SLM and SLS, and Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns, filling critical gaps in Ukraine's defense capabilities[1][5].
In addition, substantial support comes in the form of mobile artillery like the Zuzana 2 howitzers, which bolster Ukraine's long-range artillery capabilities against Russian advances[4]. The two countries further aim to strengthen their strategic cooperation in defense production by jointly manufacturing air and missile defense systems and ammunition, as well as localizing German weapons manufacturing on Ukrainian soil[2].
Germany's contribution to these efforts through the European Peace Facility is roughly 1.4 billion euros, underpinning comprehensive military support beyond direct equipment deliveries[5]. These combined efforts form a crucial backbone that could sustain Ukraine's defense against Russia in the coming years[1][2][4][5].
- Ukraine's survival in the absence of heavy USA support relies on the support of allies like Germany.
- Former President Poroschenko advocates for a stronger Germany to fortify its leadership role across Europe.
- Germany invests financially and strategically into Ukraine's defense, providing advanced weaponry, joint production partnerships, and financial investments.
- Germany's contribution to Ukraine's defense through the European Peace Facility is approximately 1.4 billion euros, underpinning comprehensive military support.
