Can Ukraine Hold Its Ground Without U.S. Support? "Our Hopes Rest on the New German Chancellor"
A new German Chancellor instills optimism among the populace
In the heart of Kyiv, experts and officials are tirelessly discussing Ukraine's defense, the Western alliance, and the potential impact of reduced U.S. support. Former President Poroshenko expresses optimism towards the new German Chancellor, with hopes pinned on a strengthened role in European security.
Amidst the backdrop of Russia's relentless aggression, the transatlantic support system under U.S. President Donald Trump remains fragile. Ukraine, a land that has been battling Russian troops for over a decade and has been embroiled in a conflict since February 2022, is unwilling to accept the fissures within the Western alliance.
"We are at the front, fighting in an extremely challenging scenario," said ex-President Poroshenko during the Kyiv Security Forum. Ukraine faces a severe lack of personnel, technology, ammunition, and weapons, particularly air defense systems. Poroshenko believes that Germany, under its new Chancellor, holds the key to investing in European security, not just supporting Ukraine directly.
Struggling for Peace and Strategic Armament
Since President Trump took office, the Western alliance has shown cracks, and Ukraine is determined not to be left behind. This topic was the focus of the opening speech at the forum, where experts gathered from various Western countries. Ukraine's former Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk exhorted the allies, "We did it 80 years ago, and we will restore the world order again."
Yatsenyuk compared the current situation to the pre-WWII era, warning against striking a deal with Putin, who operates under different rules than Trump. Putin warned China and the Global South, expressing that neutrals or would-be mediators are complicit in the war if they don't take a stand.
Trump's former special envoy for Ukraine, Kurt Volker, highlighted the importance of military deterrence in negotiations. He criticized the Trump administration for exerting pressure on Ukraine but making few demands on Russia, emphasizing that increased pressure is crucial to push Russia towards a ceasefire.
Weapons Shaping the Battlefield
Ukraine's crucial plea is for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or drones, which have become decisive tools on the battlefield. Vyacheslav Shutenko, a commander of a battalion for unmanned systems, believes that drones are no longer auxiliary systems but critical for victory. Ukraine seeks a scalable drone production and continuous supply to its military and combat units to turn the tides of war.
The future of military technology is currently being developed in Ukraine, powered by the "will to survive." Tech entrepreneur Dmytro Shymkiw reported leaps in innovation within weeks, with rapid adaptations between engineers and units on the battlefield. Advanced technologies not only protect soldiers' lives but also benefit allies such as Germany, Britain, and Portugal in terms of their armaments industry.
However, Commander Shutenko acknowledges that Ukraine cannot win the war alone with drones. Apart from well-trained personnel, continuous international support, including diplomatic, financial, and air support, is critical. The war is being fought against one of the most powerful armies in the world. If Ukraine succeeds, it will inflict such losses on the Russians that they will plead for negotiations and peace.
Experts see the recently announced resource agreement with the United States as a positive signal. Ambassador Steven Pifer believes that it is worth continuing U.S. involvement but emphasizes the importance of having a backup plan for Ukraine.
- Attack on Ukraine
- Ukraine
- Russia
- Friedrich Merz
- Ceasefire
- Arms Delivery
- Donald Trump
- Vladimir Putin
Enrichment Data:
Current Military Situation:
Ukrainian forces continue to wage defensive and offensive operations, including cross-border strikes, demonstrating the effectiveness of their indigenous and Western-made weaponry. The use of aerial and naval drones has weakened Russia's layered defenses, compelling Moscow to redeploy air defense assets to protect high-profile events and critical infrastructure.
Potential Reduction in U.S. Support and Impact:
The U.S. continues to provide some level of defense aid, but there are signs that this support may be curtailed, particularly regarding offensive capabilities and negotiations for a more significant NATO role. Clouds of uncertainty hover over Ukraine's defense posture as it adapts to this evolving situation.
Alternatives Being Considered:
Ukraine is banking on diversifying support from various Western allies and enhancing the strategic use of its existing armament, seeking meaningful diplomatic efforts with NATO, and exploring the possibility of deploying Ukrainian troops in Europe to share the burden of European security. Ukraine's resilience stems from its adaptability and determination to secure a place in the world order.
- In the absence of U.S. support, Ukraine is relying on the new German Chancellor to strengthen European security and invest in defense, hoping to fill the void.
- Ex-President Poroshenko believes that Germany, under its new leadership, could play a significant role in restoring peace and aiding Ukraine's employment policy, which still faces a severe lack of personnel, technology, ammunition, and weapons.
- During the Kyiv Security Forum, former Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk urged the Western alliance to restore the world order, likening the current situation to the pre-WWII era and warning against striking a deal with Putin.
- As the war in Ukraine continues, Ukraine is seeking advanced technologies such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or drones to turn the tides, with the future of military technology being developed domestically. However, experts agree that to win the war, Ukraine needs not only well-trained personnel and continuous international support but also diplomatic, financial, and air support from its allies.
