Surviving Without the USA: Ukraine's Battle for Existence
A new German Chancellor ignites optimism amongst the public
In the heart of Kyiv, scholars ponder Ukraine's defensive war against Russia and its Western alliance, as former President Poroshenko expresses admiration for Germany's Chancellor Merz. While the USA remains an important ally, experts foresee the need for backup plans.
With tanks parading through Red Square, symbolizing victory against fascism, Ukraine's scholars discuss strategies to endure against aggressor Russia, with or without the USA's assistance. Western alliance support under US President Trump appears to weaken. Is there a glimmer of hope for peace? If not, which weapons could swing the war?
"We're on a precarious frontline," said Petro Poroshenko at the Kyiv Security Forum. "We lack not only troops, but also technology, ammunition, and weaponry, particularly air defense. 'Our hopes rest on the new German Chancellor,' said Poroshenko. 'I had the chance to speak with him just a few days ago, and I was impressed by his commitment to fortifying Germany's leadership role across Europe and showcasing it.'"
Western Alliances: Cracking Under Trump
Since Trump took office, the Western alliance seems to be splintering. Ukraine, home to Russian troops on its soil for over a decade and embroiled in a fierce conflict since February 2022, refuses to accept this. This is the topic of the forum's opening speech, where Western world experts gather, including Germans. Ukraine's former Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk implores the allies: "We did it 80 years ago, and we shall restore the world order once more."
Weapons for Victory
Yatsenyuk draws a historical comparison. When the "free world" attempted to negotiate with Hitler in 1938, it proved fatal. "Hitler launched a massive invasion of Ukraine." Today, Putin operates under different rules than Trump. He warns China and the Global South: "Those who claim neutrality or present themselves as mediators must realize that you cannot remain neutral in this war; you must choose sides, or you are an accomplice."
Later, Trump's former Ukraine envoy, Kurt Volker, takes the stage and is queried about White House peace endeavors. "Putin will never accept peace," Volker asserts. "We require military deterrence." The Trump administration puts significant pressure on Ukraine but demands little from Russia, Volker elucidates. Pressure on Russia needs to be drastically increased to move the latter toward a ceasefire. Trump misconstrues Putin's motivations due to his fixation on deals.
Drone Technology: The New Battlefield
The most practical question is which weapons could tip the scales – without imminent US aid. Drone commander, Vjacheslav Shutenko, proclaims their significance. "Today's wars are about technology, precision, and speed. Unmanned systems are no longer secondary weapons; they are decisive on the battlefield." To achieve victory, Ukraine needs scaled-up drone production and constant supply to combat units, asserts Shutenko.
His statements align with those from another round that agrees on the importance of future battlefield innovations: The military technology of tomorrow is currently being developed in Ukraine. Innovation leaps occur due to the "will to survive," says tech entrepreneur Dmytro Shymkiw. These advancements take place between engineers and units during active deployment. Shymkow stresses that only the most advanced technologies can protect soldiers' lives. This also benefits the armaments industries of allies, such as Germany, Britain, and Portugal.
However, Commander Shutenko believes that Ukraine cannot win the war with drones alone: Well-trained personnel for infantry and attack units is essential, but so is continuous international support. Diplomatically, with sanctions, with air forces, and artillery. "We need it all because we are fighting against one of the most powerful armies in the world here in Ukraine. If we triumph, we will inflict losses on the Russians so severe they will beg us for talks and peace."
Peace Negotiations: Failing to Progress
Peace discussions progress sluggishly for Ukraine. Security expert Julia Kazdobina, Director of the Ukrainian Foundation for Security Research in Krakow, Poland, explains that the US government's efforts have been largely misguided. "It endeavors to create peace without taking the war's history and reasons into account. It treats both sides of the conflict equally and disregards the fact that Russia is the aggressor, the aggression is intentional, and planned." Attempts to make concessions toward Russia will not solve the situation. "Such concessions harm Ukraine more than they aid."
The International Community: At War Already
According to Kazdobina, other European nations are already at war too. "We understand that, according to Russia's military doctrine, preliminary hybrid methods for weakening the potential victim come first. Then follows the confrontation on the battlefield. 'Even if there seems to be peace still and they are only exposed to hybrid attacks, they are already at war.'"
The ideal scenario would be continued US aid. Experts see the resource agreement with the United States ratified by the Ukrainian parliament as a favorable signal. It underscores the importance of saying no. Steven Pifer, US ambassador to Ukraine from 1998 to 2000, advocates continued US involvement. However, Pifer emphasizes the need for a backup plan for Kyiv.
- Petro Poroshenko, at the Kyiv Security Forum, emphasized Ukraine's need for Western allies, particularly Germany, due to a lack of troops, technology, ammunition, and weaponry, especially air defense.
- In the discussion about Western alliances, Ukraine's former Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk urged allies not to accept the weakening support under US President Trump and called for restoring the world order.
- Kurt Volker, Trump's former Ukraine envoy, suggested that military deterrence, not peace negotiations, was necessary to deal with Putin, who will never accept peace.
- Vjacheslav Shutenko, a drone commander, highlighted the importance of drone technology in today's wars, but also pointed out that Ukraine cannot win the war with drones alone; it also needs well-trained personnel, constant international support, and advanced technologies.
