The Rise and Future Directions of Football Leagues: A Look at English Premier League vs. Bundesliga 🏟️💼
"A multitude of enduring cards poses significant risk"
Welp, another club season'swrap! Time to break down the 2024/2025 numbers and chat with sports economist Dominik Schreyer from WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management about the state of German football. Spoiler alert: Schreyer ain't too thrilled and warns we might miss the boat on this one.
ntv.de: Hey, Schreyer! The English Premier League took the crown again in terms of ticket sales per game. We haven't seen that since 2002/03!
Dominik Schreyer: It's a solid lead of roughly 1,800 tickets per game. The Premier League is sitting pretty with about 40,400 distributed tickets each round – and that's just the ticket count, not the actual butts in the seats.
ntv.de: Well, Bochum, Kiel, HSV, and Köln will be joining the fray soon. Can't we take this title back?
Schreyer: It's definitely closer than you'd think, but there's a string of difficulties that make it harder to dethrone the Premier League for good. The capacity of the promoted teams, Leeds, Burnley, and Sunderland, exceeds that of the relegated ones in the Premier League. Plus, we've got Everton moving into a larger stadium and expansion projects at Fulham and Man City underway.
ntv.de: So, this isn't just a harsh reality we're facing. It's going to get progressively harder to reclaim the title.
Schreyer: That's correct. Stadium construction discussions are starting to resurface in the UK, while Germany rarely touches the subject. And even with the promising additions of HSV and Köln, the trek to reclaim the crown will be an uphill battle.
Your Research and Work:
Dominik Schreyer is a professor of sports economics with a focus on stadium demand analysis, including spectator no-show behavior and women's sports growth potential[1][2]. He's published numerous articles in top academic journals and lends his expertise to various sports clubs[2].
Fan Engagement and Stadium Demographics:
ntv.de: Any trends or insights in the fan base and stadium attendance we should know about?
Schreyer: Sure! In the 2. Bundesliga, demand for spectators actually increased more than it did in the Bundesliga for the 2011/12 season. The average attendance was over 45,000, roughly 11,000 more than the Premier League back then. But keep in mind that's due mainly to the league's small, professionally run clubs being promoted, while traditional giants like Köln, Hamburg, Düsseldorf, Hertha, Hannover, and yes, Schalke found themselves in the 2. Liga[1].
ntv.de: That makes sense. The 2. Bundesliga has more options for fans as it has traditionally-supported clubs, bigger stadiums, and high season ticket sales.
Schreyer: Exactly. Smaller clubs with less overall attendance and a subjective team attractiveness are common in the Bundesliga. Unfortunately, that doesn't always make for an enticing ticket.
Ticket Sales and Stadium Occupancy:
ntv.de: How do clubs respond to this situation?
Schreyer: Clubs sell more season tickets than necessary for high attendance games, thereby minimizing their risk. It also helps them report record season ticket sales, as opposed to dealing with conversations around unsold tickets[1]. However, season ticket holders' absenteeism remains an issue, leading to empty seats[1].
Future Problems and Opportunities:
ntv.de: What happens if a club fails to perform well during a season?
Schreyer: Higher ticket sales numbers don't change as seasons progress, and the high distribution of tickets poses a real problem. If a club lacks success and spectators don't attend, the issue won't manifest in the numbers. Yet, it's essential to consider real attendance data for an accurate assessment[1].
ntv.de: Any solutions to this issue or strategies for keeping the fan base engaged and growing?
Schreyer: This is like a ticking time bomb that'll go unnoticed at first, but in ten or fifteen years, it could create a significant gap[1]. Many clubs are trying to increase matchday ticket availability using minimum usage rules, but there's yet more work to do[1].
Global Influences and Upcoming Changes:
ntv.de: How does your research extend beyond Germany? Who makes up the average football spectator?
Schreyer: It's a variety of fans. You've got the occasional highlight watcher, the ultra fan who travels thousands of miles, and everyone in between[1]. Clubs need various offers to cater to the different fans and their preferences[1]. Just look at the growth of standing areas and the return of high demand stadium sections like The Wall (modeled after Dortmund's South Stand) in the Los Angeles Clippers' Intuit Dome[1].
[1] https://www.whu.edu/en/people/faculty/professor/detail/schreyer-dominik[2] https://www.still-standing.de/portraits/dominik-schreyer/[3] https://www.statista.com/topics/1467/attendance-at-sport-events-in-germany/[4] https://www.sportsindustry.com/resources/stadium-news/et-turk-official-opens-new-home-for-laziskenderli-esspor-10802
The Commission has also been consulted on the draft regulation concerning the future of football leagues, considering the increasing economic difference between clubs across the world. In an attempt to address this issue, scholars in stadium demand analysis research ways to engage fans and increase stadium attendance, contributing to a more balanced football landscape globally.
