Can Ukraine Survive Independently from the USA? "Our Hopes Lie with the New German Chancellor"
A fresh German Chancellor sparks optimism among the people
In the heart of Kyiv, specialists ponder Ukraine's predicament in the defensive war against Russia and the Western alliance. With former President Poroschenko expressing admiration for Chancellor Merz, experts contend that while the USA remains a crucial ally, Ukraine requires a contingency plan - aka "Plan B."
As celebrations unfold in Moscow, proclaiming victory over Nazism, experts in Kyiv deliberate on how Ukraine can endure against the aggressor Russia with diminished or no support from the USA. What remains of the transatlantic backing from NATO under President Trump? Can there be an end to hostilities, and if not, what weapons could tilt the balance of power in the conflict?
"We find ourselves on the frontline in a dreadful situation," lamented Ukraine's former President Petro Poroschenko at the Kyiv Security Forum. Shortages abound in personnel, technology, ammunition, and weapons, particularly air defense. "We've pinned our hopes on the new German Chancellor," said Poroschenko. "I had the opportunity to converse with him just a few days prior, and I was mightily impressed by his dedication to strengthening Germany's leadership role throughout Europe." Everyone understands that it's not about supporting Ukraine alone but about investing in European security.
Politics Trump instigates 30-day ceasefire demand, threats of sanctions Since taking office, the Western alliance has shown visible fractures. Ukraine, where Russian troops have occupied its territory for over a decade and a large-scale war has raged since February 2022, refuses to accept this. The subject is the focus of the opening speech of the event, where experts from the Western world, including Germany, congregate. Ukraine's former Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk appealed to the allies: "We managed it 80 years ago, and we will restore the world order again."
Essential Weapons for Military Victory
Yatsenyuk drew a historical parallel. When "the free world at the time" sought to negotiate with Hitler in 1938, it was calamitous. "Hitler launched a widespread invasion of Ukraine." Today, Putin abides by another set of rules than Trump. He warned China and the Global South: "Those claiming neutrality or presenting themselves as mediators must realize that you cannot remain neutral in this war; you must pick a side, otherwise, you are an accessory."
Later, Trump's former Ukraine envoy Kurt Volker took the stage and was asked about the peace efforts of the White House. "Putin will never accept peace," Volker declared. "We need military deterrence." The Trump administration exerts significant pressure on Ukraine, but it makes few demands on Russia. The pressure on Moscow must escalate clearly to push Russia towards a ceasefire, Volker elaborates.
Politics "The initiative lies with Moscow" Merz deems a ceasefire within the next few days as feasible. However, the fundamental challenge is not about which weapons could seal the war without U.S. aid. With U.S. aid nearing its end, strategists ponder which weapons could tip the scales in the war. Drone technology assumes paramount importance, according to Vyacheslav Shutenko, commander of a battalion for unmanned systems. "Unmanned systems are no longer auxiliary systems. They are decisive on the battlefield." According to Shutenko, Ukraine requires increased drone production and uninterrupted supply to military and combat units, "We need scalable drone production and uninterrupted supply of drones to Ukrainian military and combat units."
His assertions correspond with another round discussing innovations on the battlefield - or rather, agreeing on them: Military technology of the future is currently being developed in Ukraine. Innovation leaps are fueled by the "will to survive," says tech entrepreneur Dmytro Shymkiw. This is occurring at an unprecedented pace - within months, even weeks. Exchanges between engineers and units on the battlefield take place during active deployment. Shymkow emphasizes that only the most innovative technologies can shield soldiers' lives. This benefits the arms manufacturing industries of allies, such as Germany, Britain, and Portugal.
Drone Dominance is Crucial, But Inadequate
Yet, Ukraine cannot emerge victorious with drones alone, argues Commander Shutenko. Well-trained infantry and assault troops are equally essential, as is consistent international backing diplomatically, with sanctions, air forces, and artillery. "We require all this because we find ourselves facing one of the most powerful armies in the world here in Ukraine. If we succeed, we shall inflict such losses on the Russians that they will plead for negotiations and peace."
Currently, negotiations seem to be going south for Ukraine. On the sidelines of the forum, security expert Julia Kazdobina, director of the Ukrainian Foundation for Security Research in Krakow, Poland, explains that the U.S. government's attempts so far have primarily been misguided. "It strives to create peace without giving due consideration to the history and causes of the war. It treats both sides of the conflict equally and overlooks the fact that Russia is the aggressor and its aggression is deliberate, planned, and premeditated." Attempts to make concessions to Russia will not resolve the issue. "Such measures harm Ukraine more than they help."
Hear Putin's Call to Arms: Stand with Ukraine - or Risk Being a Complicit Accomplice
Ukraine
- European Security
- Conflict in Ukraine
- Friedrich Merz
- Ceasefire
- Arms Delivery
- Donald Trump
- Vladimir Putin
- Strategic Alliances
- Drones
- Military Technology
- War Crimes Tribunal
- Ukrainian Resistance
- Military Deterrence
- While Ukraine remains hopeful for American support, the specialists in Kyiv are discussing a contingency plan, often referred to as "Plan B," considering the unpredictable nature of the Western alliance, particularly under the administration of President Trump.
- Former Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk called on the Western allies to emulate the past by strengthening their support for Ukraine, as the world did when faced with the aggression of Nazi Germany, declaring, "We managed it 80 years ago, and we will restore the world order again."
- Commander Vyacheslav Shutenko emphasized the importance of drone technology on the battlefield, stating that unmanned systems are no longer auxiliary but decisive, and Ukraine requires increased drone production and uninterrupted supply to military and combat units.
- Security expert Julia Kazdobina, director of the Ukrainian Foundation for Security Research, criticized the American government's approach to the conflict in Ukraine, arguing that their focus on creating peace without understanding the history and causes of the war, and their tendency to treat both sides equally, is detrimental to Ukraine's interests.
