3 Key Questions in Corn
Global grain markets are facing shifting trends as the 2025-2026 season approaches. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released stock estimates for key regions, including the United States, European Union, China, and Ukraine. Meanwhile, corn prices show mixed signals, with long-term data suggesting a potential rally despite current bearish conditions.
Corn stocks have hit a 13-year low, yet market prices remain weaker than in previous years. Analysts note that December futures typically lose momentum in winter, while cash prices often strengthen. This pattern aligns with historical trends, where December corn rises 5% in spring before dropping 6% in summer and recovering 4% by autumn.
The May 2026-July 2026 corn futures spread recently covered 28% of full commercial carry, a bullish indicator. This suggests concerns about securing enough supply for next spring’s demand. If the spread stays positive, it may attract noncommercial buyers in the coming months, though not to the same extent as past cycles. Structural factors also point to a possible rally in winter and spring. The US is set to export 4.5 billion bushels of corn in 2025-2026, a 67% jump from the previous year. Despite this, funds have cut their net-long futures positions to near zero after a mid-December selloff. Long-term analysis still marks corn as a buy for August 2024 and 2025 contracts.
The corn market currently appears more bearish than a year ago, but conditions could shift by spring. With exports surging and futures spreads signalling tight supplies, traders are watching for a potential rebound. The USDA’s global stock estimates will remain a key factor in shaping market movements across major producing regions.
