NBA 2025 Second Round Playoff Trends: A Closer Look
2025 NBA Second Round Playoff Betting Trends Unveiled: Insights on Team Performance and Wagers
Get ready for a thrilling ride as the NBA playoffs heat up! The first round was predictable, but things are about to change. Let's dive into second round trends, explore upsets, and discover strategies to aim for profitable betting.
Upsets abound:
In contrast to the first round, where only 19.8% of lower-seeded teams managed upsets, the second round sees upset frequency nearly doubling, with 36.4% of underdogs pulling off victories (16 out of 44 series). This includes teams seeded worse than third, such as the Pacers and Mavericks in 2024.
Remember, the pressure on high-seeded teams amplifies as the stakes rise, which contributes to the increased upset rate in later rounds.
Series trends:
- Favorites with regular season win-loss totals that are +6 or higher have a strong edge, going 14-6 in series victories and 67-44 in individual games.
- Series between teams whose regular-season records are within 5 of one another have been toss-ups, with the higher-seeded team winning 10 times and the lower-seeded seed winning 10 times.
- Teams that played two fewer games in the first round have a favorable second round record, 7-3 since 2015, with a stellar 35-19 record in individual games.
Scoring trends:
Scoring is a major factor in the second round. Teams that score 112 points or more usually triumph, with a 118-27 SU and 112-32-1 ATS (77.8%) record. Conversely, teams that fail to reach the 103-point mark struggle, going just 23-116 SU and 30-108-1 ATS (21.7%).
Line and total trends:
- Bigger road favorites are generally profitable, winning 10 out of 11 games straight up and going 7-2-1 against the spread.
- Laying big points at home hasn't worked out well for bettors, with hosts laying 8.5 points or more going 14-6 SU but just 5-15 ATS in recent years.
- The number 220 has been vital on totals over the last six years in the second round of the playoffs, with under hits considerably more frequent than overs. On totals of 220.5 or higher since 2018, Unders have gone 36-17-1 (67.9%), including 13-0 when 227.5 or higher!
Last game trends:
- Teams coming off losses in the second round rack up a poor 12-27 SU and 15-24 ATS record in the follow-up games.
- On the other hand, teams coming off a loss in a second round series game and playing at home have bounced back well, 23-13 ATS (63.9%) since 2021.
- Close losses have been galvanizing for teams lately, with those losing by 6 points or fewer following up with a 17-6 SU and ATS record over the last four postseasons.
If you're preparing for the second round of the NBA playoffs, don't forget to keep these trends in mind.Remember: Upsets are more frequent in the second round, so don't be afraid to back underdogs that might push favorites to the limit. Utilize these trends and transform your betting experience, resulting in profitable and enjoyable wagers!
[1] NBA trends indicate more upsets in later rounds[2] NBA 2024 second round playoff analysis
- In the second round of the NBA playoffs, upsets are more common, with 36.4% of underdogs pulling off victories.
- Examining the point spread, obtaining higher odds with favorites having +6 or more regular season win-loss totals can lead to successful series victories.
- Scoring significantly impacts the second round, with teams scoring 112 points or more tending to triumph, while those below the 103-point mark often struggle.
- In terms of line and total trends, backing bigger road favorites can be profitable, while laying big points at home has been less favorable for bettors in recent years.
- Analyzing the number 220 on totals, Unders have had a higher success rate over the last six years in the second round of the playoffs.
- After losing in the second round, teams returning to action often struggle, but those returning at home have bounced back well in terms of against the spread records. Be aware of these trends for a successful sports-betting experience.
