2025 NBA Second Round Playoff Betting Predictions and Tendencies

NBA 2025 Second Round Playoff Trends Unleashed

Ready to take a deep dive into the juicy, action-packed world of the NBA's second round playoffs? Buckle up, because we're about to unleash a flood of trends, stats, and insights that'll leave you breathless.

The first round was predictable as ever, with four powerhouse Eastern teams making their way to the final four. The Western Conference, on the other hand, offered a bit more drama, with a couple of competitive series. The tragic demise of the Lakers at the hands of the Timberwolves, even after the addition of a superstar, made for quite the upset.

From a betting standpoint, doubling down on favorites and totals went as expected. But don't forget about the glorious Zig-Zag theory, which shined like a beacon in the first round. Many of those key trends continued to excel, and now it's time to share the intel you'll need as we venture into the second round.

Expect a bit more excitement in the second round, as the stakes ramp up and competitiveness tends to follow suit. Three out of the last seven conference finals have been the result of series upsets, so keep that in mind as you place your bets.

Now, let's dive into the nitty-gritty of what's been going down in the second round:

Series Trends

Since 2010, 16 out of the last 44 lower-seeded teams (36.4%) have pulled off upsets in the second round, more than double the first-round upset rate.
There are nine teams in the past four years that have the balls to upset a higher-seeded team when they're worse than third seed, including the Pacers (over the Knicks) and the Mavericks (over the Thunder) in 2025.
In the past seven playoff seasons, a whopping six number one seeds have lost a series in the second round. Choose your teams wisely if you're backing the likes of Cleveland or Oklahoma City.

Scoring Trends

Teams that score 112 points or more in a second-round playoff game have gone on to win 77.8% of the time and cover the spread 77.8% of the time over the last eight seasons.
On the flip side, teams that fail to reach the 103-point mark have only won 21.7% of their games and covered the spread 21.7% of the time.

Trends by Line/Total Range

Home teams falling behind by 8.5 points or more have barely covered the spread (25%) in the second round since 2016. Contrast this with their overall record of 58%.
On the flip side, road favorites of 5 points or more have been on a tear (77.8% win rate and a 62.5% cover rate).
Teams seeded worse than third that have a regular season record within 5 wins of their opponent have been toss-ups, with the better seed winning 66% of the time and the worse seed winning 34% of the time.
Teams with a regular season win-loss record +6 or higher have won 67% of their series against lesser opponents since 2015, with a 67-44 record in individual games.
In the past eight seasons, scoring 112 or more points in a second-round game translates to a 67.9% Under record for the total.

Last Game Trends

Teams on the road after losing the first game of the series have a dismal record of 38.5% in the follow-up game, both straight up and against the spread.
Teams that lost by 6 points or fewer in the first game of the series have enjoyed an impressive 74% win rate in the follow-up game, both straight up and against the spread, over the last four postseasons.
In competitive contests (decided by 10 points or fewer), the same series game that follows is 65.1% Under the total.
Teams that score 127 or more points in Game 1 of a series have struggled in the follow-up game, with a 25% win rate and a 20% cover rate.

Trends by Game Number

In Game 1, home teams have the edge, with a 58.1% win rate and a 58.1% cover rate since 2016.
The best Game 1 favorites have the biggest edges, with a 60% win rate and a 67.9% cover rate when laying 6 points or more.
Home teas have a dismal 25% cover rate in Game 1 when the point spread is -5.5 or less.
Home teams in Game 2 have been on a roll (73.9% win rate and a 73.9% cover rate) when the home team is a 7-point underdog or less.

Upset Frequency

Historical NBA data reveals a significant increase in parity over the past few years. The 2025 conference finals featured only one top-two seed, indicating that upsets are increasingly common. Recent playoff trends suggest that second-round upsets are more likely than first-round upsets, with a 36.4% win rate for lower seeds since 2010.

Series Length

Historically, second-round series usually last 5-6 games. However, the current parity trend has favored more extended series, particularly in conferences with weak top seeds.

Scoring Trends

In recent years, playoff games have featured more offensive firepower, with 120+ PPG offenses becoming the norm. Elite transition offenses have dominated matchups, forcing defensive adjustments to counter their scoring prowess.

In summary, the 2025 NBA playoffs promise to be a thrilling ride, as teams jostle for position in the conference finals. Keep these trends and habits in mind as you place your bets and watch the action unfold. Remember, the unpredictable nature of sports is what makes it so exciting, so enjoy the games and let the chips fall where they may!

In the second round of the NBA playoffs, lower-seeded teams have a history of pulling off upsets, with a 36.4% success rate since 2010, more than double the first-round upset rate.
When it comes to betting on series upsets in the past four years, nine teams have managed to upset a higher-seeded team when they were worse than the third seed, including the 2025 Pacers and Mavericks.
Be cautious when backing the number one seeds in the second round, as six have lost a series in the past seven playoff seasons.
Teams scoring 112 points or more in a second-round playoff game have a 77.8% win rate and a 77.8% cover rate over the last eight seasons, while teams scoring less than 103 points have a dismal 21.7% win rate and cover rate.
In the past eight seasons, home teams falling behind by 8.5 points or more in the second round have barely covered the spread (25%), while road favorites of 5 points or more have been on a tear (77.8% win rate and 62.5% cover rate).
Recognizing the potential for upsets and applying trends, such as scoring patterns and line/total ranges, can help make informed decisions as we delve into the exciting world of the NBA's second round playoffs.