2025 NBA Postseason Predictions: Pacers vs. Cavaliers Game 1, Warriors vs. Rockets Game 7
Article Redraft:
Ready to dive into the NBA Playoffs action on May 4th? Let's roll!
As a die-hard basketball bettor, I'm jumping in with both feet for the upcoming games. I've been on a hot streak lately, cashing in on six of my past seven playoff games and going 4-0 before the LA Clippers ruined my party on Saturday. Nevertheless, I'm ready to start a new winning spree on Sunday with these picks.
2025 NBA Playoffs Betting Picks: May 4
(Please note that the odds provided are current at the time of writing.)
- Indiana Pacers +7, up to +8, against the Cleveland Cavaliers at DraftKings, with a risk of 1.08 units.*
- Houston Rockets -2, potentially up to -3, versus the Golden State Warriors at FanDuel, with a risk of 1.08 units.*
Pacers (+7) vs. Cavaliers Game 1
I see these teams splitting their regular-season series 1-1 both SU (straight up) and ATS (against the spread). Although they met four times, I'm not considering Indiana's wins in April as Cleveland was already secured the 1-seed in the Eastern Conference Playoffs and gave their starters a rest.
The Cavaliers had a significant edge over the Pacers in the standings, finishing 14.0 games ahead. However, Cleveland isn't always seven points better than Indiana. The Cavaliers have improved significantly under first-year head coach Kenny Atkinson, but they still face a familiar foe with the same coach and roster that made it to the 2024 Eastern Conference Finals.
Indiana split its home-and-away back-to-back vs. Cleveland on January 12 and 14, even with star PG Tyrese Haliburton missing the second half of the first game due to a hamstring injury. Haliburton's performance has been exceptional since the NBA All-Star Game, and he had a stellar showing in the first round of the playoffs.
His true shooting rate (TSS) increased by almost 100 percentage points post-All-Star break (68.1-58.9%). Haliburton's offensive rating went from 124 to 146 in the second half of the season and his assist per game from 8.5 to 11.0. Keep an eye out for Tyrese Haliburton!
Fun Fact: Tyrese Haliburton's Father Banned from Pacers Games, Tells New Story on Running-in with Giannis Antetokounmpo
If Haliburton is keeping up his stellar play, the Cavaliers have no one to stop him. The Pacers have solid perimeter defenders such as Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard who can guard the guards effectively. Will Donovan Mitchell get his? Probably. But, Indiana should make it difficult for him. Haliburton has a good chance to find success against the Cavaliers' defense.
In this high-scoring, 3-point-heavy era of the NBA, fewer than seven points is not a big spread to cover. However, this works both ways, as the Pacers have the potential to sneak in for the victory as well. Between continuity, coaching, and roster depth, the Pacers have a good chance to cover Game 1.
Prediction: Cavaliers 118, Pacers 113
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Warriors vs. Rockets (-2) Game 7
Here's where things get a bit tricky. Sportsbooks know a lot, and sharp money is often placed on favorite teams like the Rockets. However, I'll dive into an unconventional perspective, just for fun.
The Houston Rockets (No. 2) are facing the Golden State Warriors (No. 7) in the first round [Source]. This pairing is intriguing because the Rockets are winning three of the four key factors (shooting, rebounding, and free-throw margin), out-scoring the Warriors 106.5-104.2 in points per game, and have dominated them in the latter half of the series.
Moreover, the Rockets have a significant physical advantage over the Warriors. Houston is scoring 10.3 more paint PPG (47.0-36.7) and 5.3 more putback points per 100 misses than Golden State according to CleaningTheGlass.com. The Rockets' big men, such as Alperen Şengün and Steven Adams, are dominating the interior, and the Warriors don't have enough 3-point shooters to keep them at bay.
Prediction: Rockets 111, Warriors 104
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Be sure to follow me on X (@geofferyclark) for more bets and random ranting. I'll be updating my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season. Until next time!
- In the upcoming NBA Playoffs on May 4th, I'm placing my bets on the Indiana Pacers, even with a challenging +7 spread against the Cleveland Cavaliers, trusting Tyrese Haliburton's exceptional performances and the team's solid perimeter defenders.
- The Houston Rockets are favored against the Golden State Warriors with a -2 spread, but I'm taking an unconventional approach, betting on the Rockets due to their significant physical advantage, out-scoring the Warriors in key factors and dominating in the interior with players like Alperen Süngün and Steven Adams.
- Despite the odds suggesting the Cavaliers have a significant edge, I believe the Pacers can cover the spread in Game 1, due to factors such as continuity, coaching, and roster depth.
- In the NBA's high-scoring, 3-point-heavy era, a 7-point spread might not seem large, but in this matchup, it works both ways, with the potential for the Pacers to pull off a victory.
- Between the Rockets' interior dominance, out-scoring the Warriors, and a strong free-throw margin, Houston has a good chance to cover the -2 spread against Golden State in the first round.
