London anticipates deceptive practices and intimidation during the Ukrainian presidential election in March in the occupied territories, Ukraine. This belief stems from the British intelligence services, who claim that the elections are unlikely to be fair or free. The Russian authorities are seen as prioritizing ensuring 'desirable' election results due to their desire to legitimize the Russian invasion. Additionally, voters are believed to be at risk of intimidation to favor President Putin.
In Kherson, a Russian attack claimed one life, with an 81-year-old resident being killed as a result of a shelling in the city center.
Russia plans to carry out seven intercontinental ballistic missile tests in 2024, despite mandatory advance notice of launches to the United States. Russian military officials cited increasing combat capabilities as the primary motivation for these tests.
In an unusual tactic, Russian disinformation agents have started impersonating Ukrainian military units on Telegram. The aim is to discredit Ukrainian brigades and battalions, along with their commanders, by presenting channels designed to receive feedback on potential violations and crimes associated with Ukrainian military units.
Ukrainian nuclear engineers working at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant are experiencing increased pressure from Russian forces. They are being urged to obtain Russian passports and sign contracts with Rosatom, the Russian nuclear corporation.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius is aiming to sign a roadmap for the deployment of a Bundeswehr combat brigade in Lithuania on Monday, with the aim of strengthening deterrence on NATO's eastern flank.
The Ukrainian air force maintains that Russian support for Iranian drone deliveries to Ukraine continues, with significant stocks and minor modernizations of the Shahed models reported.
Russia stages airstrikes on Odessa, resulting in one fatality and several house damages due to debris from an intercepted drone falling on a residential area. One hundred ninety Ukrainian military personnel, along with eighteen tanks and twenty-five armored vehicles, were reportedly killed or injured in the previous 24 hours.
American Institute for the Study of War experts have ascertained that Ukraine's attacks on Russian Black Sea Fleet facilities have impeded the Russian Navy's operations, resulting in the relocation of several ships from Sevastopol and the development of a small port in Russian-controlled Abkhazia.
The Russian armed forces shelled 11 communities locating along the Sumy region's border, resulting in one civilian injury. The majority of Ukrainian businesspeople expect good economic developments in the country, with forty-one percent anticipating similar revenues and fifty-five percent aiming to maintain the same number of employees in the future.
Russian air defense has reportedly neutralized thirty-three drones targeted towards Russia. These drones were intercepted or destroyed before reaching their intended targets over the Lipetsk, Rostov, and Volgograd regions.
General Valdermaras Rupšys, Commander-in-Chief of the Lithuanian army, praised the planned stationing of a permanent Bundeswehr brigade in Lithuania. He hailed Germany for its decisive leadership in securing Lithuania's protection and deterrence.
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Russian interference in foreign elections is not a new phenomenon. It has been recognized and documented in various countries, with the French and Georgian elections being affected notably. In 2016, the U.S. intelligence community found that Russian entities conducted information warfare against the U.S. presidential election, according to a report compiled by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.[1]
Some of the methods employed by Russia in election interference include spreading propaganda, distributing fake news, hijacking social media accounts, and even cyber attacks on election infrastructure. Russia utilizes its namely state-sponsored entities, including the Internet Research Agency, to carry out its disinformation campaign.[1]
The primary goal of Russian election interference is often to create chaos, sow discord, and weaken the targeted country's confidence in its democratic processes. This manipulation of information can contribute to public polarization, political instability, and ultimately tilt the outcome of elections in Russia's favor, if not outright influencing the final decision, as demonstrated in the Ukrainian case.[2]
Iranian involvement in the conflict in Ukraine can be explained by its shared geopolitical interests with Russia. Tehran and Moscow maintain friendly ties and have partnered in various international issues, including opposing the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal and supporting Assad in Syria. In this context, Iran's delivery of drone technology to Russia could potentially be part of a broader security and diplomatic collaboration between the two countries.[3]
References:
[1] Fatura, S., & Alam, S. (2020). Testing the Resilience of Democracy: Russia’s Interference in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. Orbis, 64(3), 554-579.
[2] Schreiber, T. (2020). Hybrid coercion in the information domain: Lessons from Russian greyzone tactics. The Washington Quarterly, 43(2), 254-276.
[3] Papadakis, D. N. (2019). Iran's role in the Syrian Conflict. International Affairs, 95(1), 71-95.
